There is one clear assumption you have to make summing up today's $A2 million Caulfield Cup - that Fairway's last-start win over Sunline was no fluke.
Once you make that it's easy to see Fairway winning today.
Darren Beadman, replaced through suspension by Damien Oliver, thought Fairway was close enough to a good thing.
That was before the barrier draw, but even from so wide out Fairway looks a top chance.
There is no one who rides Caulfield better than Damien Oliver. If he cannot get Fairway a decent passage, it simply will not be available.
Caulfield cups are notorious for upsets. There is huge potential for it again, but if the form holds true, Kiwi mare Hill Of Grace and Diatribe are strong chances to look at the serious money.
The Turnbull Stakes last start was not Hill Of Grace's type of race, but this is. The 2400m will be ideal and rider Brett Prebble has been confident of the mare taking the race since the Turnbull.
Jim Cassidy is having his first ride for six months on Diatribe, the pair having won the Rosehill Guineas.
Despite facing probably the most competitive field of the day at Ellerslie, Star Satire (No 7, R9) looks one of the best bets of the day.
She has always looked exceptional and her time to win the Lowland Stakes at Hastings last start was sensational. Tackling the older horses at this time of the year is never easy for 3-year-old fillies, but Star Satire looks to have the class to handle it. Drama Queen (No 6) looked good when resuming, despite missing a place, and looks a big danger.
Ballina Kate (No 1, R10) is another filly facing the older horses for the first time. Similarly, she has what it takes to manage the task, even though only fourth in the Guineas at Ellerslie last start. Trainer Stephen Autridge has freshened Ballina Kate for this.
"When she won the Guineas Trial she was bouncing around and frisky, but she was a bit flatter for the Guineas. She obviously likes to be a bit fresher, so that's how she will parade." St Therese (No 2) is better than her last effort.
Greatthings Happen (No 11, R4) is racing a grade ahead of his class, but he can make things interesting. He is one of those horses always running on and never quite getting there, but he steps up to 1600m this time and that could be the key. Sir Alexis (No5) landed the money well at Hastings when resuming and looks headed for better things.
Capebay (No 4, R7) looked very good in only a handful of starts last season. That was her first campaign and she should be even better this preparation. She has a terrific finish and if she gets a reasonable trip from her midfield draw she should go close. In a smart field, Krystal Klear (No 2), stablemate Regency (No 3) and Nobodywantsme (No 5) are chances.
The Jillings/Yuill stable opened the Ellerslie meeting two weeks ago in sensational style, and might go close again to at least winning the babies race again with another first starter in the appropriately named Flying Babe (No4, R1). Flying Babe impressed winning at the Ellerslie trials last week.
Forgive Drizzle (No 3, R6) his failure last start and look to Mr Emperor (No 5, R8) to improve on his first-up fourth here two weeks ago.
The $100,000 Captain Cook Stakes at Trentham is going to be a great race. Hero (No 3, R8) will set them up a good gallop, Durzetta (No 11) is a big hope after her Rotorua win, but Integrate (No 10) might finally get the group one win she deserves. That second to The Message last start was a fine effort and the track should suit her even better this time. Cinder Bella (No 9) is the value.
Racing: Fairway tough customer but look for Kiwi upset
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