Racing: Factor in minuses - Balmuse still tops

Four factors should determine the chance of Balmuse in tomorrow's $100,000 Rotorua Cup.

They are weight, distance, track conditions and travel.

The weight - 59.5kg looks daunting, but this is one of the weaker Rotorua Cup fields we've seen.

Balmuse not only stands out in weight, he stands out in class.

The weight shouldn't stop him.

Neither should the 2200m distance. It's as far as Balmuse has raced, but rider David Walker believes 2400m, perhaps even 3200m, would not be beyond him.

The track - slow yesterday - is almost certain to come up wetter than Balmuse prefers, but he can cope with anything and he is, after all, by Lord Ballina, one of the truly great sires of mud-runners.

Then we've got the travel.

No one has ever accused trainer Kevin Myers of being conventional.

Racing a horse three times within 13 days following a six-month break away from the track is not something every trainer, or every horse, could cope with.

That plus two Cook Strait crossings and a float trip up the North Island to Rotorua this week.

But Myers is an astute horseman and if he's asking it of Balmuse then he fully expects the horse to cope.

What will help is that although it looked a tough effort, Balmuse's Canterbury Gold Cup victory at Christchurch last Saturday was actually achieved with a minimum of effort.

Despite being in trouble for clear air ahead on the home bend, Balmuse got to the leaders too quickly in the home straight and Walker had to give him several taps behind the saddle to keep him rolling.

Perhaps the greatest statistic in Balmuse's favour is that he won his only appearance at Rotorua.

The unique surface at Arawa Park has tripped up many horses and there would be a question mark hanging over Balmuse here had he not previously raced on the track.

That question mark applies to the next three under Balmuse in the handicap, Desert Flight, Kew and Pretorius.

Desert Flight ran just a fair race in the Hawkes Bay Gold Cup to finish fifth after receiving a lovely trail behind the leaders to the home turn.

His two wins prior to that were in slightly easier company than this and at 56.5kg he has crept up in the weights.

He has to be allowed a chance on the strength of finishing strongly for a close second to Anne Carina at Tauranga three starts back in conditions fairly similar to what he should strike tomorrow.

Kew coped with 2000m when she stepped up in distance to win at Te Rapa last start, but at 2200m she is probably getting to the extent of her range.

It was a gutsy win though and if she can grit her way through an additional 200m she will be right in it.

Even though he covered some extra ground, Pretorius' eighth in the Hawkes Bay Cup looked the effort of a horse on the way down.

Balmuse apart, he has more class than these at best and is perhaps worth one more try in multiple bets.

Avaroadi beat only a handful of horses at Te Rapa last week, but he did the job well and is approaching his absolute peak.

He rates highly as a previous winner on the course.