Racing: Envoy just right for mission

Zabeat holds out Gorgeous George to win last year's Wellington Cup. Ross Setford / Getty Images

Statistics can send you broke on a racetrack.

But there is one very important stat you need to be aware of for tomorrow's $250,000 Dulux NZ Colour Map Wellington Cup - Envoy was 4.5 lengths away from Makybe Diva in seventh place in the Melbourne Cup in November.

At first look that might not be heart-stopping, but take a close look at the Wellington Cup field and imagine each runner competing in the 2005 Melbourne Cup.

Difficult to make a case that any of them would finish in the first half of a Melbourne Cup field.

Flemington was almost certainly Envoy's finest racetrack performance - with 170m to run he was still there whacking away in fourth place.

Finishing behind him in one of the world's toughest horse races were the likes of Vinnie Roe, Dizelle, Caulfield Cup winner Railings, Vouvray and Bazelle, all of whom could start favourite for a Wellington Cup.

If you needed evidence that Envoy has done the right thing by his form since Australia you got it when he beat probably his two toughest rivals this time, Trebla and Zabeat in a nose, short head finish to the weight-for-age Trentham Stakes last Saturday.

"I'm very happy with him since the weekend," said Envoy's Matamata trainer Ken Kelso.

You can use the Trentham Stakes as a literal guide to the Cup. Trebla and Zabeat look slightly better off this time, each being 1kg advantaged in the weights against Envoy compared with last weekend, but that could be balanced by rider Grant Cooksley's thoughts on his performance.

"His effort was better than the close result might suggest," said Cooksley. "He was held up in the home straight and it was a very good effort."

Kelso is unconcerned about Envoy's very wide barrier draw - in fact, he's pleased about it.

"He'll probably have to go back from the draw, but that's better than drawing close in and being shuffled around.

"I'll leave it entirely over to Grant - you can't tell a rider of his experience what to do, he will have done his homework."

The weather, and therefore the track conditions, is another matter. A track rating of 2.8 or worse will give Kelso a headache.

The Trentham footing was rated only dead on Wednesday, but considerable overnight rain on Wednesday pushed the rating out to 3.7 and soft yesterday.

Good weather is predicted right through the weekend and local trainer Brent Hrstich believes if that forecast is correct a perfect track, almost identical to last Saturday, should be the result.

Envoy is hopeless on anything but good footing.

Trainer Del Roberts is confident of a big showing from New Zealand Cup winner Trebla and has good reason to be on two counts.

The Trentham Stakes close second was hugely encouraging and Roberts is delighted that Trebla went forward not backwards in condition after Riccarton.

Always a big lean type, Trebla gave the impression he had filled out parts of his spare frame in last week's parade - a big plus heading into a 3200m event.

"He's ready to run a big race," says Roberts.

His only disappointment is that Leith Innes' suspension has cost him a rider that knows Trebla well.

Co-trainer Dean Logan is expecting a big effort from last year's winner Zabeat.

"I'm happier with him going into this race than last year when we had all that trouble with him pulling a plate.

"The thing I am concerned about is the track condition. If it didn't get back to firm I'd start to worry.

"But then that would suit our other horse Northern Beau - he'd love an 'off' track. He's the forgotten horse in the race on his Riccarton form, taking a line through Trebla."

Northern Beau was beaten a neck by Trebla in the New Zealand Cup.


$250,000 Wellington Cup

* Envoy deserves to be the $5.50 favourite for the Cup after his Trentham Stakes win last weekend.
* His statistical form looks impressive - particularly his seventh placing behind Makybe Diva in last November's Wellington Cup.
* Trainer Ken Kelso is delighted with Envoy's progress since last week.
* Last year's winner Zabeat and New Zealand Cup winner Trebla look the biggest dangers.