KEY POINTS:
An improving track and yesterday's parallel improving weather forecast for Trentham today spelled magic for the connections of Envoy in the $300,000 Wellington Cup.
Winning back-to-back top-class 3200m races is never easy and the biggest downside for Envoy defending his Wellington Cup title today was the midweek prospect of a dead track.
The Matamata stayer showed last year he is at his best when the track is very firm and the indications last night were that he would get those conditions by late afternoon today.
The 58kg looks daunting, but it's only a tick more than he carried in his dominating win last year and, to be honest, this is not a great line-up.
Sure, there are a couple of improving stayers, but the field lacks depth.
Envoy appealed last year because he'd finished seventh in Makybe Diva's Melbourne Cup and few, if any, of his rivals that day could have done the same.
Given Envoy looks in similar form the same rule of thumb applies - how many of these horses would you back to top-10 in the Melbourne Cup?
Envoy is a class stayer who seems to have matured late and is probably better now than at any previous stage of his career.
The luckless Grant Cooksley felt that when he rode a brilliant race on the 8-year-old to win the Trentham Stakes last Saturday. In fact, he thought the horse felt slightly better than last year.
The injured Cooksley knows Envoy well, but so does replacement rider Hayden Tinsley, who won a Hawkes Bay Cup on the stayer.
Horses need luck to carry 58kg in major 3200m races. That's all Envoy needs to be right in this finish.
Willy Smith and So You are talented and both will be suited by this race. They are impossible to leave out of trifecta betting.
Sydney stayer Respect is short in the market after Opie Bosson galloped him between races last Saturday, but for this column there is doubt around the horse.
First, he goes up from 53.5kg in winning the Perth Cup to 57kg. Second, and most important, he is a dead-set one-pacer. Bosson will ride him perfectly now he knows him, but if Envoy, Willy Smith or So You are close to him at the 300m, they will get to the line first simply because they can run 300m faster.
There is nothing wrong with Respect's ticker - he fights like hell - but he's probably going to need to pinch a break on this field at some stage late in the race to be competitive in the sprint to the line.
Everswindell appeals more. Don't be put off by the lower standard of horses she beat here on Monday, she could only win and she had plenty left. She has more class than most of these.
Twopaddocks (No7, R1) might be a good way to start the day. The form on paper looks moderate, but it doesn't show the bad luck with rain-affected tracks. He has a bit more potential than some of these and if Jim Collett can find a decent run from a wide gate, he should be right in the party. Trentham will suit him.
He Kin Danske (No7, R2) is really going places. His first-up win at Manawatu was stunning and if he's come out of that well and freshened during the two-week break, he should get over the top of this field too. Zergar (No3) gets a 2kg claim and that should help him be competitive.
Kaapeon Way (No2, R3) thoroughly deserves a win. He had one everywhere but on the line when bombed at Awapuni. That was a real fighting effort and should be rewarded. Charming Shinko (No5) could be some value for the trifecta.
Race 4 is a cracker. Tatlock (No3) has had no luck lately and the same could be said for fellow Cambridge sprinter Pinsoir (No9).
Tatlock, at one point a leader, now seems better when allowed to settle behind the speed. This dogleg 1200m should allow him that opportunity.
He looked cramped up on the tight Thames circuit when beaten last start and Pinsoir looked the same. There is plenty of class in the race but this could be the quinella. Conversaad (No6) was beaten for the first time last start at Te Rapa, but he got no favours and should do better here.
After such a terrific run of form Veloce Bella (No1, 5) was the beaten favourite in the Royal Stakes, but it might pay to ignore that. She didn't get the best of runs and was probably just a fraction tired. She has class and fight and the four weeks between races should see a vast improvement.
Princess Coup (No3) might not be forgiven by her connections for turning right out of the starting stalls in the Royal Stakes, but she has only to stay with the field to go close here. Her second to Veloce Bella on Boxing Day at Ellerslie was fabulous. Irlanda (No4) is very talented.
The eighth is probably not a punt race, but Padlock (No2) was stylish in quitting maiden ranks two weeks ago. The way he got to the finish that day suggests the step from 1300m to 1600m this time will be ideal. Neveragain's (No1) Ellerslie win was smart, too.
Wahid (No5, R9) has been sweating on a firm track and if that's the case he's the obvious horse to beat. A lot of luck is needed to win the Thorndon Mile and Leith Innes has a job on his hands to find a gun run from the wide barrier, but if he manages that Wahid's class can do the rest.
Don't drop Gaze (No12). She had no luck in two starts then clearly needed last week's Avondale run to tighten her up for this. She can win.
In a race with plenty of chances, as you'd expect, Fiscal Madness (No3) and Glen Boss, Sir Slick (No1), Shikoba (No15) and Bonjour (No9) all to be in the frame.
Decent line-up in the Douro Cup to finish the day. Far Too Much (No7) is dropping down from the Rich Hill Mile class and he didn't disgrace himself there. He's a horse with underrated ability and can put in a big effort here.
Makutuwai (No13) might have been better if the prospect of a dead track had continued, but he's difficult to leave out. He ruined his chances with a slow start last week and did well to run on strongly behind Zerello. He could be value here.
High Octane (No2) is talented, consistent and improving, despite rising through the grades quickly.
