Racing: El Segundo primed to peak

Co-favourite Racing To Win has yet to race over a distance as far as the Cox Plate's 2040m. Mark Dadswell / Getty Images

This time last year Colin Little was on a downer.

His class act El Segundo had just run down the track as favourite in the Caulfield Cup.

We all know even a week can be a long time in horse racing and here, 12 months down the line, Little feels he is about to realise a lifetime ambition and win tomorrow's A$3 million ($3.5 million) Cox Plate.

The fact that if it happens it will be with the same horse that created the stress last year, simply through immaturity, means so much to the quietly spoken Melbourne trainer.

El Segundo was the ruling Cox Plate favourite until he let his legion of Melbourne fans down by finishing only third, beaten half a head and one length by Casual Pass and Pompeii Ruler in the A$400,000 Yalumba Stakes at Caulfield two weeks ago.

It didn't help that the horse considered his arch rival in the Cox, Racing To Win, has been in sensational form in Sydney.

Punters deserted him for that reason, but now have the pair back to even favourites, well clear of third favourite, the 3-year-old filly Miss Finland.

From day one, Little was nowhere near as disappointed with that beaten performance as, seemingly, everyone else and refuses to see it as a negative as he draws a bead on the Southern Hemisphere's greatest weight-for-age race.

"A lot of people thought he looked flat in the Yalumba, I didn't.

"I thought he went quickly from the 800m to the 200m and whacked away only in the closing stages.

"The gallop he'd had the previous Tuesday had not been as hard as I'd wanted and he'd gone five weeks with just one run over 1800m.

"It was always our plan to be at top on the 28th of the month, not the 14th."

Little resisted the temptation to take El Segundo to the Breakfast With The Best at Moonee Valley on Tuesday, where Racing To Win worked stylishly, but El Segundo had galloped brilliantly on the Moonee Valley circuit last Saturday morning.

"We've had a couple of small headaches along the way, but we're over those, I'm completely happy."

Little has enormous respect for Racing To Win and is a long way from confident he can beat the Sydney star, but he knows he's got a couple of advantages.

He sees those as the fact that Racing To Win has not yet raced at Moonee Valley and that he has yet to race over a distance as far as the Cox Plate's 2040m.

"My horse loves Moonee Valley. He loves the surface and loves the corners.

"Darren [Gauci] says he always shows that he appreciates the track, certainly more than he appreciates Caulfield.

"Racing To Win is a very good horse and has been carrying big weights to beat good fields in Sydney and if we were meeting him under those conditions in Sydney then I'd be worried.

"But we're meeting him on our favourite track over a distance that will suit my horse and a distance which he has yet to try.

"Those are big disadvantages and if they were reversed, the advantage would be with him.

"Let's say I'm pleased we're taking him on where we are."

Little's concern is that there is no obvious leader in the race.

"The race looks devoid of pace to me.

"Everyone's saying Apache Cat will go forward and lead, I don't believe he will. He over-races in front and I think they'll be looking for cover for him to try and get him to relax.

"Casual Pass is a possibility to lead, but he went slow in front in the Yalumba and that wouldn't suit us."

El Segundo has drawn wide and Little says there is no option but to drop back early.

"If they walk in front then I'd be worried about us from where we'll be."