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MELBOURNE - So a 3-year-old hasn't won the Derby-Melbourne Cup double for 65 years.
Pearl Harbour was still in the future when Skipton got over the Flemington finish line for the 3-year-olds in 1941.
How much of that do we read into the chances of Saturday's Derby winner Efficient adding today's A$5 million ($5.75 million) Melbourne Cup to his CV?
Efficient is 77 days into his life as a 3-year-old, but there are a couple of other statistics that are actually more important to his chances than just his age.
What's remarkable about discussing Efficient as a likely Melbourne Cup winner is that eight weeks ago he was a maiden and, perhaps even more significant, he is in his first preparation.
If you bring to mind his sensational sprint at the end of Saturday's A$1.5 million Victoria Derby you tip him as a real Cup chance today.
If you bring to mind his beaten performance on debut in a Ballarat maiden in late August, you dismiss him immediately.
Yes, there is probably something in the statistics, but until Fields Of Omagh recently captured everyone's imagination at Moonee Valley, no 9-year-old had won the Cox Plate.
And until Makybe Diva began her Melbourne Cup winning spree, the most a mare (Empire Rose) had carried to win the Cup was 52.5kg. It's now 58kg.
Records don't bar success and neither will they stop Efficient winning today's Cup.
Next year the cry may well be "only two 3-year-olds have won the Derby-Cup double in 66 years".
Efficient certainly looks good enough to create that scenario.
Jockey Shane Dye, good mates with Efficient's majority owner Lloyd Williams, is strongly tipping the horse.
Williams is an interesting character. He is a self-made multi-millionaire who, with Kerry Packer, owned Melbourne's plush Crown Casino and has either owned or part owned two previous Cup winners, What A Nuisance, 1985, and Just A Dash in 1981, and also has shares in both Zipping and Activation in this year's race.
He might not be a Howard Hughes-type recluse just yet, but Williams, despite having a hands-on approach to his horses on a daily basis, rarely goes to the races.
Instead of being at Flemington to cheer Efficient home in the Derby on Saturday, Williams watched the classic on television at home.
And after getting everyone excited that Efficient had joined those who can win Australia's greatest horse race, Williams was his usual eccentric self in saying he'd be just as happy to scratch from the Cup if he could be convinced running was likely to be bad for the horse.
That's not the sort of thing one Melbourne punter wanted to hear.
The punter had a good win on Efficient on Saturday with Sportingbet and rolled the bank over to take A$130,000 at $9 to win A$1.04 million on his chances in the Cup.
As soon as the barrier draw came out leading bookmaker Michael Eskander said he would have his money on Efficient being pulled out of the race.
"He's too valuable to risk," said Eskander and a lot of people are thinking the same.
Rival trainer David Hayes, who will saddle the favourite Tawqeet, respects Efficient's chances
But Hayes says if he trained the 3-year-old he wouldn't start him in the Cup.
"I wouldn't be prepared to take the risk."
Ten years ago Nothin' Leica Dane tried to win for the 3-year-olds after taking the Derby, but he found Doriemus too strong and finished second. He carried just 47.5kg and Efficient has 49kg.
Handicapper Greg Carpenter had the option of giving him more, but said the 49kg is plenty.
"It's the equivalent of 57 for a 4-year-old and 58.5 for a 5-year-old," said Carpenter.
