Without showing disrespect to a host of hugely talented horses, it will surprise no one if Kawi and Turn Me Loose settle down to battle out the Makfi in the dying stages.
Make no mistake, whoever is in front at the winning post will be the best ridden horse with the best luck in running. Here's the scenario: Turn Me Loose has the first advantage in that he is an on-pace runner and with Bosson seemingly able to grab the spot he wants early in these sorts of races, he should be sitting pretty at the end of 300m.
Conversely, Kawi will jump from a mid-field barrier and Innes will have the job of finding the right spot somewhere midfield on the outside without covering extra ground.
Unless all the luck goes Kawi's way, that should be point one to Turn Me Loose.
Kawi likes to hit the line hard late in his races and the one requirement for that is a fast pace, that has those up front going hard and wilting slightly late, allowing back runners their best chance. There is ample pace in this race and those in mid-field or even further back will get their chance.
Point two to Kawi.
The Hastings home straight is not long like Riccarton, Te Aroha and even Trentham. If a horse can grab the lead and has the class to keep going late at this level it has a lively chance. Point three to Turn Me Loose.
Tenacity wins group races - remember Puccini's group one at Trentham in January - and Kawi, bigger and stronger than before, will show tenacity to burn today. His Foxbridge Plate effort, second then relegated to fifth, was fabulous given he wasn't properly fit and did not properly appreciate the footing. The Hastings track should be somewhere around the 5 or 6 today, which should not be too much of an inconvenience to either of the favourites.
Other chances? Well, this is a group one and they don't encompass bad horses. Any one of seven or eight could win. But these two stand out.
The Volkstok'n'barrell connections have probably picked the right year to campaign in Australia.
Make no mistake, Australians are never easy to beat on home ground, but, unlike a few years ago around the era of Makybe Diva and the like, there are no superstars to knock over.
The Waller-trained Boban is going to be a major hurdle for Volkstok'n'barrell in this afternoon's A$400,000 Memsie Stakes at Caulfield and Waller's horses can be devastating.
But Boban has at times shown he's not the epitome of an everyday horse.
Volkstok'n'barrell arrived in Melbourne as late as 9pm Wednesday in the care of co-trainer Chris Gibbs, who says so far things have gone to plan.
"He's still getting into his tucker, but hopefully he gets into his routine and starts to thrive. This race will bring him on and he should thrive as a result of it."
Gibbs, whose father former master trainer Jim Gibbs, is a part-owner of Volkstok'n'barrell, sees an irony in the race - in the Memsie his horse will meet his former stablemate, Australian Oaks winner Rising Romance, now trained in Australia by the Hayes/Dabernig partnership.
"Fancy these two meeting first up. It will be interesting because she's no slouch fresh from a spell. She can be right in the race." Last night Volkstok'n'barrell was quoted at $7.50, which makes him a decent each-way bet.
Donna Logan has stayed home for today's local Ruakaka meeting, something she has totally dominated in recent meetings.
Okay Donna, your best today and don't say Hasselhoof: "Hasselhoof", thanks Donna. Next best: "Silencer", not much better in price, so let's go for third best: "Caduceus in the last", needs to go better than last meeting but she says it will.
Okay. She could win a Ruakaka race with an average jockey riding a broomstick.
