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If there was a section of Saturday's $100,000 Championship Stakes at Ellerslie that earned Down The Road sudden close third favouritism for the $2.2 million Telecom Derby, it was the last 80m of the 2100m race.
If you watch it again and again you'll want to back Down The Road in the richest race ever run in New Zealand - the Matamata 3-year-old was incredibly strong in the final stages and looks the perfect horse for the 2400m of the Derby.
But this is not going to be your average race to sort out.
Befitting the stakemoney, in living memory there has not been a more open Derby.
On the rejigged TAB market after Saturday's big race at Ellerslie there is $1.50 among the first five horses at the top of the market.
That may sound to some like the TAB is having a loan of punters and offering no value but, in fact, it is a realistic snapshot of the respective horses' chances.
Jungle Boots remains the TAB's $5.50 favourite, just ahead of Le Baron on $6.
Not surprisingly, Down The Road shortened right up to $6.50 and Australia's Coniston Bluebird and My Scotsgrey are at $7.
Each year as we approach a Derby, some horses cope with the pressure of the intense preparation and some don't and you're usually left with two or three, perhaps four, that are realistic winning chances.
Some years you can narrow it down to two.
This is probably a wonderful example of how the moving of the Derby from Boxing Day to late February/early March has worked beautifully.
The fact that so many horses appear to be reaching their peak form at exactly the right time is almost certainly confirmation that the additional two months-plus has allowed the 3-year-olds to better cope with the pressure of their preparations.
The five horses already mentioned are strong chances and those immediately behind them in the market, Tell A Tale ($10), Easy Ryder and The Meista at $12 and Sufficient at $14, can all win without surprising one racing follower.
Apart from Down The Road's win, we probably can't read too much into the actual placings in Saturday's race because of the rain-affected footing.
Southerner The Meista was brave in a front running second, but looked to be dipping and diving in the conditions, which somewhat clouded the issue of whether he will be able to race as keenly as he seems to want to and still run the 2400m right out.
There is no questioning his ability and his courage.
Coniston Bluebird was huge and the Australian can win the Derby.
He was caught wide going out of the straight and got going a bit too keenly.
He sat three wide and still managed to finish off strongly into third.
That would have been a top effort had he been 100 per cent fit, but for obvious reasons Bede Murray had left some improvement in his horse and he'll strip a lot better on Saturday week.
"That was a very good performance," said his Australian jockey Scott Seamer.
"He felt a little fresh before the race and I was very pleased."
The Kelso stable felt Hong Kong-owned Down The Road's last run at Ellerslie a couple of weeks ago was close enough to the run of the race and were confident of a big run this time.
So was Michael Coleman, who jumped off runner-up The Meista to ride the winner.
Sufficient, who needed to run in the top four to guarantee a Derby start, was late scratched because of the rain-affected conditions. He will run at Matamata on Saturday in search of the stakemoney that will force him into the Derby line-up, although with Juice and Alagant Satin unlikely runners he should be reasonably safe
Heza Karma Karzi is in a similar position.
Trainer John Sargent was not happy with the way the horse trotted up on Saturday morning and pulled him out of the Championship Stakes.
"It's nothing, but I won't take a chance with the horse.
"He probably stood on something walking off after his gallop here at Matamata the other morning.
"He's right again already so he'll run either in the St Leger Trial at Otaki Friday or here at Matamata on Saturday."
Late Edition leapfrogged a couple of those at the bottom of the Derby entry with his game win in the last race, the 2100m Lindauer Brut Cuvee, a rating 70 event.
He's a touch underrated and deserves a Derby spot.
There is certainly no question about his toughness.
The runs of Le Baron (sixth) and My Scotsgrey, who finished seventh, can best be forgotten.
Le Baron will improve with that effort and My Scotsgrey was hampered and finished strongly.
