Racing: Doubters give bookies' top pick wide berth

No-one wants to back Xcellent in Australia.

The unbeaten New Zealand star will run around in today's A$1.8 million AJC Derby at Randwick without an Australian friend among punters and bookmakers.

Xcellent was yesterday at $2.25 with the New Zealand TAB, but so sparse has betting been for him in Australia you could get $2.75 for him last night across the Tasman.

Mark Morrissey, odds setter for leading Sydney bookmaker Colin Tidy, said yesterday their office had no support at all for Xcellent at $2.40, so they drifted his price and still no takers.

"We had to go way out to $2.75 before anyone wanted to back him and even then the big punters have steered right away from him.

"Just about everyone is suspicious of his New Zealand form - there is just no respect here for him."

All of which suits the Xcellent camp just fine. The 3-year-old's New Zealand co-trainer Paul Moroney said the play-down has taken some of the pressure off.

"He was lay of the day in the Sydney Morning Herald yesterday and since then everyone has climbed on the bandwagon and declared he can't win."

Most of the Doubting Thomases focus on the field Xcellent beat in the group one Darley Stakes at Ellerslie last start.

One of the loudest knockers is trainer Anthony Cummings, whose stable Xcellent is boarding at. Lashed, who Xcellent beat at Ellerslie, wouldn't rate in Australia as anything better than a group three horse, Cummings has been quoted as saying.

"I admit I'm a bit suspicious of his form too," says Morrissey. "The Darley field were the usual suspects, Lashed and Distinctly Secret - any half-decent 3-year-old from over here would beat them."

Morrissey is even more concerned that Xcellent will not be suited by the tempo of the race.

"I'm nervous about his racing pattern of getting back to the tail of the field each time. AJC Derbies are run as one-off races. It's almost always the horse's first time at 2400m and jockeys overcompensate in speed to help them get the distance.

"It means most AJC Derbies are run at a slower tempo than they should be and it just doesn't suit back runners. There is not a lot of speed in the race and unless one of the outsiders sets up a decent speed it will be a sprint home. If that's the case Xcellent is going to be giving them 10 lengths start.

"The one thing that will help him is that he's picked the right year - these Australian 3-year-olds are an ordinary bunch by usual standards, there probably isn't one length between the top four."

Xcellent's stable is not commenting a great deal, but Paul Moroney says he believes Australian punters have got it wrong.

"We are confident we have a very, very good horse - one right out of the bag."

He said Xcellent has now settled in well after going off his feed for the first 24 hours in Sydney.

"He was walking around very eye-popping for the first day, but he's much more relaxed now and he's eating well."

Morrissey said the big money had come for Outback Prince, trained by Anthony Cummings.

"There has been some hard money for him and the smarties have also cottoned on to Eremein. There is a bit of support for Jymcarew, but the jury is out on Xcellent, we need to see him here first."

The Randwick track, one of the great drying surfaces, has stood up well to this week's torrential rain after being rated heavy on Wednesday.

It was fine in Sydney on Thursday and yesterday. Although showers were predicted overnight, Paul Moroney said most expect the track to be only dead (easy), with the strong possibility of improvement.

"We are not greatly worried either way, we pretty much always believed he probably needed rain to show his best."

King Johny gives New Zealand a strong second chance. He finished powerfully in the Parramatta Stakes in his Australian debut last week and is the perfect horse for 2400m on a tough track like Randwick.

AJC DERBY

* First run in 1861 and won by Kyogle.

* Honour roll includes Gloaming (1918), Phar Lap (1929), Peter Pan (1932), Tulloch (1957.

* More modern winners include Kingston Town (1980), Bonecrusher (1986), Mahogany (1994), and Octagonal (1996).