Racing: Dollario among some solid bets at Ellerslie

Indian Sky. Photo / APN

There are a couple of really solid bets at Ellerslie today despite the very wet conditions, but probably none better than juvenile Dollario in the $45,000 Novotel Foal Stakes.

You can analyse the babies field as often as you like - each time you end with the same three conclusions.

The first is he's won three races and the rest are maidens except for two runners who have won one each.

Second, as a three-race winner he's in 4kg light in a set-weight race.

And third, he's shown he is bombproof in very heavy ground.

And how important is that going to be at Ellerslie today.

If you needed a further push, trainer John Sargent says Dollario's work at Matamata on Tuesday morning was the best of his campaign.

James McDonald replaces stable apprentice Dicky Lui because there are no apprentice allowances.

And, one more advantage, the outside gate is probably going to be a big plus, even though only four previous races will have gone over the track.

All horses can be beaten, but it's difficult to find more positives than around Dollario. The danger could be Whoshe, who may not have beaten a bunch of superstars in winning at Dargaville, but the way she sprinted home late through the heavy ground suggests she is capable of stepping up. If you're prepared to take the short odds on Dollario, you shouldn't mind the likely tiny return on Asgoodasitgets (No4, R3), because he looks every bit as good a chance. He played with the opposition at Rotorua when winning by 3.8 lengths last start and although up a grade, comes in on the same weight. There are a couple of old, tough winter performers pitched against him, but nothing that looks up to the task.

Quickasucan (No9, R10) fractionally disappointed this column when only third at Rotorua last start, but in retrospect he was never going to beat Asgoodasitgets. We rate him very highly as a mudder and back on the track he won on two starts back he rates highly as an each-way bet. The value is Sleeping Murder (No13), a more than capable mudder who will be improved for his first-up Ruakaka run on a track that was much too firm for him. Quite a few chances outside these two, one of them being Loviste (No6), who will find this a lot easier than the stakes class she tackled last start at Rotorua.

It took Rusty Devil (No3, R2) forever to mature enough to find his true form, but last campaign he made up for it. That lack of maturity might be one of the reasons his first-up form is ordinary and you have to take the chance here - in his first run since November - that he can ignore the stats. The way the race sets up with Abbey Tralae (No4) claiming a 3kg allowance, Rusty Devil has to give her 5.5kg and Abbey Tralae is recommended as the each-way bet. She likes bad ground, has won twice at Ellerslie and gets to the finish strongly - important elements today.

Abbey Tralae's rider Aimee Taylor can go close in Race 4 on Heydental Tourist (No7), a winner on the course two starts back. He will go around with 51.5kg on his back, the same weight as Twelve Monkeys (No8), who will be ridden by Rory Hutchings. Indian Sky (No2) and Don Dixit (No1) are two other smart mudders in the field, but Don Dixit generally requires a race or two to find fitness and Indian Sky appeals more on this occasion.

Keeping (No2, R6) loves the mud. He can be forgiven his last-start failure, which was against top company and he is much better placed in R90 here. He goes up to 58kg, but he's very tough and will give a great sight.

That was a pretty good effort by Off The Top (No5, R8) last start and he won't find one as smart in Phar Cry this time. Handles the wet tracks and with a 2kg claim looks great for an each-way claim. Pentango (No11) could be the value.

Feel One (No3, R9) gave the impression he was just one race away from a win when he finished second at Rotorua recently. He is still learning and looks promising.