On a firm track, tomorrow's $45,000 Bonecrusher Stakes at Ellerslie may be a comfortable way to start a $1 million Pick6.
On the prevailing tough winter conditions it's headache material.
You've probably got only two runners, Sweet Suitor and Extra Explosive, that you can guarantee will pretty much handle the wet track and perhaps two others you suspect may.
But does that mean you can afford to turn your back on the others?
Almost certainly not.
Because among them you've got horses talented and promising enough to probably manage the track, despite the conditions.
Hoofit is one of them. Trainer Stephen McKee is as much in the dark over Hoofit's chances as Pick6 punters.
"I have no idea how he will cope with the track, but he's big and strong and will probably get through it as well as any of them.
"Having finished second over the metric mile to Lion Tamer [Champagne Stakes] means he's going to keep going even if it's under sufferance."
Hoofit was then spelled and resumed recently at Ruakaka for fifth.
That run is best forgotten. He was three wide without cover for much of the race, was pushed even wider on the home bend and was bumped significantly in the closing 150m. The jump to 1400m and to what will be a tough race for some is in his favour.
One of the keys will be in which of the 3-year-old race Andrew Scott elects to run Extra Explosive.
The filly is coming off a break since winning the Castletown Stakes at Foxton in early June. Previously, she easily won a lesser race at Counties.
The Foxton track was heavy enough to force Extra Explosive to run the 1200m in 1:16.13, so tomorrow's conditions are unlikely to be an issue.
Sweet Suitor from the Graeme and Debbie Rogerson team looked a coming headliner in winning at Rotorua last start.
It was only a maiden race but the way he left them behind late to score by nearly five lengths was super impressive. Heavy footing at Rotorua is different to Ellerslie, but he certainly managed it well last start.
Toma Valea has yet to win one but has caught the eye running on well for two thirds, suggesting the step to 1400m is going to be an assist.
Heavy footing seems to suit him.
Laughing Gor, a nice maiden winner at Ruakaka, is one of those on whom the jury is still out about the track conditions.
Although still a maiden, Central Districts visitor Waiana Gold was third to Rememba Howe at Wanganui and fourth in the Ryder Stakes.
Racing: Distance should suit Hoofit
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