It is an early Christmas present for punters - a real Great Northern Derby.
The $100,000 classic is always a great race but in the past few years it hasn't been an easy race to make money out of.
Derby dominators like Courage Under Fire, Stars And Stripes and Holmes D G have captured the Alexandra Park premier 3-year-old race on their way to winning 14 Derbys between them.
But the biggest certainty in tonight's Derby is that the winner is going to earn it the hard way, as the 2700m mobile event has drawn its most even, and possibly strongest, field in a decade.
Sires' Stakes Final winner Franco Heir will start favourite even after losing his unbeaten record last week. He meets a two-pronged attack from the Mark Purdon stable in Young Rufus and Taihape Tickler as well as fellow southern star City Rogue, a last start winner of the Golden Mile.
All have produced performances worthy of a Derby winner this season and are rated good enough to win tonight's classic by their trainers.
So when the margin for error is that small victory usually comes down to luck and tactics.
Luck we can't predict, tactics we can try.
Franco Heir and Young Rufus have drawn perfectly at barriers two and three respectively and whoever wins their private war into the first bend will hold the upper hand as the race unfolds.
Franco Heir was anything but disappointing in his defeat by Taihape Tickler after sitting parked over 2200m here last week. It was his first start since that awesome Sires' Stakes Final win on November 14 and he will improve markedly.
Trainer-driver John Hay is happy with how the gelding, purchased by Australian owners for $250,000 this season, has come through his Alexandra Park debut with the upstanding gelding having worked well this week.
But while he has achieved much in such a short career he has yet to be used up early from behind the mobile in a race. He did show speed off the gate at the Alexandra Park workouts a fortnight ago but whether he will have the lick to lead early is the burning question of tonight's clash.
If he does then Hay has the choice of staying in front or handing the lead to Young Rufus, who is a fast beginner and will almost certainly be going forward at the start.
If Franco Heir secures either the lead or the trail he is the horse to beat because it is hard to envisage any of his rivals being good enough to give him a start and a beating at his peak.
Victory for the favourite could be a fitting farewell as it is likely to be his last start for Hay, whose training of Franco Heir has been outstanding under unusual circumstances. Franco Heir is booked to travel to Melbourne and join the Noel Alexander stable after tonight's race.
But he sure has a farewell fight on his hands because if Franco Heir is beaten for early speed then the complexion of the Derby changes.
Young Rufus showed high speed when winning at Addington on Show Day and Tony Herlihy expects to be heading forward with the colt.
"He likes to run early and does get off the gate well so should be up there and be hard to catch," said Herlihy.
His one concern is the youngster's manners, as he can hang, costing himself valuable ground. That would make him particularly vulnerable should Franco Heir be sitting on his back around the final bend.
While the draw would appear to favour Franco Heir and Young Rufus it also opens up the possibility of an early speed duel, especially if another front line speedster like Matai Mackenzie, Arainstorm or Like An Atom gets involved in the early battle.
Matai Mackenize has been a touch disappointing this season but will strip fitter tonight and may even hold the lead into the first bend so he will be a key player. It is doubtful he can improve enough to win but as Flight South showed last week, there is no better place to be in a big staying race than cuddled up on the markers.
Any frenetic early activity would leave the leaders open to a mid-race attack from either Taihape Tickler or City Rogue.
Both have shown courage and look primed for a gutbusting 2700m. If the national record is threatened tonight then they will be the value options.
And those looking for even bigger odds could do worse than I'vecomealongway.
The beautifully-bred gelding will improve with last week's fifth and is from a stable with a staggering record in Derbys.
Racing: Derby shapes as tough battle
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