KEY POINTS:
The first 400m will decide tomorrow's $700,000 Mercedes Derby.
Positions of the leading Derby contenders with a round of Ellerslie to travel is a factor each year - this time it's probably the only factor.
Class is important to win any Derby, but to win one at Ellerslie,
luck in running is just as important.
When he won the lead-up at Ellerslie two weeks ago, Sydney colt Redoute's Dancer received a magnificent trail three places back on the rail and got out to sprint at the leaders at exactly the right time.
From gate No 11 this time it will take a stroke of genius by rider Vinny Colgan to get to the rail - that almost certainly won't happen and the combination's best chance is a position somewhere in the first 10 runners one place off the inside.
There is a risk of being caught wide if Colgan pushes forward too far and every jockey in this race knows that being three deep on the sharp bend leaving the Ellerslie home straight is not a place to be.
His joint favourite Magic Cape is a back runner, but it's almost a given first-time rider Opie Bosson will not want to drop back to the last three or four, from where the Cambridge 3-year-old has won most of his races.
It is extremely difficult to win the Derby from the tail of the field.
When some of the top fancies sprint at the 700m from mid-field and closer to the front, clearing traffic and heading after them from the back means going wide and requires a phenomenal performance to win.
Bosson, New Zealand's best jockey, will be sitting on Magic Cape's back for the first time, but trainer Shaune Ritchie will not be giving him instructions.
"There is an old line in this game that absolute top jockeys riding a horse for the first time will know that horse by the time they get to the barriers," said Ritchie.
"Opie's the best there is, so I don't need to be telling him how to ride this horse."
Redoute's Dancer should be well off in that regard - caretaker trainer Maurice Campbell and Colgan have ridden six Derby winners at Ellerslie between them. That is a fair platform from which to build a strategy.
Rider Jim Collett had his wish list filled when Veloce Bella draw barrier No 5.
One hour before Wednesday's barrier draw Collett declared what he was hoping for.
"You don't really want to draw the inside four gates or the outside four."
With the likes of Blimey O'Reilly likely to come across fast from an outside gate to try to get with the leaders early and a couple just outside him pressing forward, Collett may have preferred to draw a gate or two wider to prevent being pushed back to the rail, but he will look to maximise.
The vastly experienced rider knows exactly the type of run he would like for the talented Veloce Bella.
"Derbies are won from the 600m with a trouble-free run and the right horse underneath you.
"You probably need to be mid-field or better, perhaps four or five back and one [width] out.
"I've studied the way Tidal Light raced when she won races like the Derby and she could sprint twice in a race and still win.
"This filly can sprint twice, but not from as close to the pace as Tidal Light could sit and I'd be worried about how much would be left at the other end if I tried it with Veloce Bella."
Redoute's Dancer, Magic Cape and Veloce Bella, clearly the three at the top of the TAB betting, have all done magnificently well heading into a race the pressure of training for can topple horses over the physical edge.
Campbell says Redoute's Dancer is luxuriating in his laidback demeanour; Magic Cape has never looked better, according to Ritchie - "he's flying" - and Veloce Bella, well, she has a temperament and durability you would pay a million dollars for in the yearling sales ring if you could identify it at that stage.