Craig Demmler is going to take the biggest punt of his life tomorrow.
The young Victorian reinsman knows he can win the New Zealand Cup with Breeny's Fella. But he knows he can only win it one way.
Breeny's Fella is a one-sprint specialist, but it is the kind of sprint that can upset the best pacers in New Zealand.
When driven with one run he can be lethal - like when he won last season's Victoria Cup over Shakamaker, Christian Cullen, Courage Under Fire, Holmes D G and Yulestar. That is some sprint.
But when he has to work in his races he simply isn't the same horse. Like at his last start when he finished midfield in the Kilmore Cup after being three wide the last lap.
That confirmed to Demmler what he has to do tomorrow - wait, wait and then wait some more.
"I know we can't win from the 10m mark if we have to work. He is not as tough as Yulestar or Holmes D G," said Demmler, who father Ted trains Breeny's Fella.
"But if he gets one crack at them, with that long straight and passing lane then he can outsprint them.
"So that means I have to take a gamble. I have to sit on the markers and not try and move even if I am tempted.
"That could mean I end up not getting a run until it is too late and that could cost us the race but that is the gamble."
Demmler, who has already emerged as Australia's next great reinsman, says if his patient policy works Breeny's Fella is ready to win after a stunning workout win at Rangiora on Saturday.
Breeny's Fella paced a near national record 3:14 for 2600m standing start, his last 800m in 55 seconds.
"That is as good as he has ever gone and he is as good now as he was when he won the Victoria Cup and possibly even a little better.
"He has been racing around his paddock with his tail in the air and I couldn't be happier with him.
"In hindsight he probably didn't even need that workout yesterday but he did it so easily it has made me even more confident about where we stand."
Breeny's Fella, who is over the odds at $14 on the fixed odds market, may have had to bow to fellow Cup starter Zyuganov Leis at Kilmore last start but Demmler is under no illusions as to who is the better chance of the two Australian challengers.
"I am not taking anything away from Zyuganov Leis because his Kilmore win was great but things pretty much panned out ideally for him in that race.
"I think Breeny's Fella is a better horse, his big race record shows it."
While he was raised in Australia on a diet of Interdominions, Miracle Miles and Victoria Cups, Demmler says every Australian harness racing fan knows just what a big deal the New Zealand Cup is.
"It is the Melbourne Cup of harness racing," he said.
"When I was 18 years old I worked for Robert Dunn in Christchurch and I couldn't believe the first time I saw Addington on New Zealand Cup day.
"I mean, 20,000 people and the whole city knowing about and talking about the race, it is just unbelievable.
"Now to be here, driving in it, is a dream come true."
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Victory tomorrow would give Demmler a shot at another of his dream races - the Miracle Mile.
If Breeny's Fella, Holmes D G or Yulestar win the Cup they will be certain to get an invite to the Sydney sprint on Friday week. Any other winner would only have a moderate chance of securing one of the six invites.
New South Wales Harness Racing Club officials would like to Holmes D G, Yulestar or Breeny's Fella to win the Cup so they can invite them to the Mile.
All three are previous Grand Circuit race winners in Australia so would increase turnover and publicity for the Mile.
Bogan Fella is another chance for an invite should he win the Cup because he too has exposed form in Australia from his win in the Ben Hur at Harold Park last year and is from a big-name stable.
"But primarily we would love to have Holmes D G coming back,"said NSWHRC boss Peter V'Landys.
"It is always good to have your defending champion in the race and as long as he shows us on Tuesday he is near his best form he has a very good chance of being invited."
Two invites were issued yesterday, with early favourites Shakamaker and Courage Under Fire both earning theirs with feature race wins on Saturday night.
Shakamaker returned to winning form with a sensational 1:55 victory on a sloppy in the Legends Mile at Moonee Valley.
The Interdominion champ came from near last to win by 12m in what trainer-driver John Justice labelled, "the perfect Miracle Mile trial."
Courage Under Fire had to pace even faster to win the $45,000 Newcastle Mile, being hard pressed to run down leader Silky Pockets in 1:54.6.
The former Kiwi hero won by two metres in an effort that pleased trainer-driver Brian Hancock after the pair's shock last-start failure in the Australian Pacing Championship in Brisbane.
Another almost certain to be in the Miracle Mile is Atitagain, a stablemate of Zyuganov Leis who paced a blistering time when beating Courage Under Fire in the APC.
NSWHRC officials are also very keen on Stars And Stripes and if he wins the free-for-all at Addington tomorrow he is likely to be invited.
Racing: Demmler gambling on waiting game in Cup
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