Racing: Death, taxes and ... Elsu

I remember the banner headline well: "Death, taxes ... and Preux Chevalier".

The Melbourne Herald had decided, like the rest of the media pack, that the New Zealand-bred West Australian powerhouse pacer was a certainty in the 1985 Interdominion Grand Final at Moonee Valley.

We were all gloriously right, of course.

"The Frog" just brained them in the big race after winning all three heats, justifying his short-price odds and entering the record books as one of the truly great Interdominion champions.

Twenty years later similar accolades await Elsu tonight. On form he should emulate Preux Chevalier - he is just that much better than the rest of his rivals.

But, hang on. Let's get real here. This is an Interdominion Grand Final. Things happen in the Melbourne Cup of trotting.

The great race's history is littered with beaten favourites, good things that went bad, got knocked down, pushed off the track, snookered for racing room at that vital second; drivers who had brain explosions or succumbed to the pressures that only an Interdominion Grand Final can exert.

Elsu fans who already have him in the winner's circle, draped in the spoils of victory in another transtasman war, should take a deep breath and have a closer look at the record book, especially the following fact: Only three New Zealand pacers in the past 26 years have won an Interdominion Final - Rondel in 1979, Mark Hanover (1991) and Yulestar (2001).

Now, be honest. That's a worse record against the Aussies than the Black Caps, the All Blacks and the Silver Ferns combined. And, in this era where the focus is often on the psychological challenges to New Zealand taking on the Australians, I'd venture the opinion that when it comes to Grand Finals, the Kiwis are often out-psyched.

Of course, I'm not talking about trotters' finals.

We've won 26 of the 34 contested so far but the domination of Australians in the pacers' final is undeniable - 45 out of 63 - and thus great food for thought if you are thinking of slapping the mortgage on Elsu at $1.50, or whatever his starting price.

When it comes to Grand Finals, Kiwis often go with their hearts rather than their heads by expecting New Zealand success. I was lucky enough to start my Interdominion career in Brisbane in 1977 when the wily old Yaldhurst trainer George Noble outfoxed the gregarious Colin Pike by producing Stanley Rio to beat Aussie idol Paleface Adios in the final at Albion Park.

Noble and Pike engaged in mind games all week, especially when Stanley Rio had been unable to win a heat while everyone's favourite Paleface Adios had stomped through unbeaten on the three previous nights.

But a favourable draw, an astute drive by John Noble and some bad luck early for Pike saw "Stan The Man" home.

Interdominion pacing success by Kiwis on Australian soil is rare indeed and the New Zealanders' after-party for Stanley Rio's clearcut win was an absolute ripper.
But, I never got to go to another one thrown by a victorious New Zealander.

Mind you, the Aussies know how to party hard as well and, being a totally unbiased member of the media, I've never minded celebrating Australian success!

So, at the risk of being labelled a pessimist or a doom-and-gloom merchant from yesteryear, I have offered these sobering statistics to remind punters that many champions never won an Interdominion final, no matter how dominant or deserving.

And Elsu should not be treated any differently tonight.

I'm sure his connections, trainer Geoff Small and driver David Butcher, are taking that pragmatic view heading into this great race.

That said, he should win, just as Preux Chavelier did 20 years ago.

"Death, taxes and ... Elsu."

As headline ideas go, it's an oldie but a goodie.

* Dave Cannan was trotting editor of the Christchurch Star from 1975 to 1988 and a former editor of the Trotting Annual. He is currently chief reporter of the Otago Daily Times.