"If it had rained I'd be confident he could go close, but there might be one or two there that will be a bit quick for him the way the track is going to present itself."
The last time Counter Punch raced on a track as good as Riccarton tomorrow was when unplaced in a flat race as a lead-up to the Waikato Hurdles in May 2009, and before that when seventh in the 2007 Waikato Hurdles.
"The only thing in his favour is that this race is 1350m longer than the Koral and the others have to show they can run the distance when we know he can," said Oulaghan.
That might be very important.
Richard Eynon, who rode Tobouggie Nights to such an impressive win in the Koral, thinks the horse will get the extra distance this time, but says he isn't positive.
"And I don't think the drier track is an issue, but once again we'll have to see."
John Wheeler holds a massive hand with Tobouggie Nights and Volkswagin, who ran home strongly from the back of the field to finish third in the Koral.
"Volkswagin is going to be the main danger," said Eynon, who admits he is in love with Tobouggie Nights.
"It takes two years to make a really good jumper and he shouldn't be doing what he's doing.
"He'll jump whatever you put in front of him."
Karlos is the danger to all of them.
The Cambridge jumper had been kept away from steeplechasing since finishing second to Hypnotize in the Great Northern Steeplechase 11 months ago.
Last week's Koral Steeples was his first attempt over the bigger fences since then and his second to Tobouggie Nights, given he muffed one of the fences in the home straight, was superb. Despite appearing to become unbalanced with his awkward jump, Karlos rallied strongly to come back at the winner in the closing stages.
The extra distance will not be a problem for Karlos, who is almost certainly a touch fitter and harder for last week's run.
Of the others, Ho Down appeals as much as any. He is relatively new to steeplechasing, but showed plenty of promise with his win at Wanganui two starts back.
Verdict: Karlos, Tobouggie Nights, Volkswagin, Counter Punch.