Racing: Dashing grey deserves benefit of the doubt

The likely scenario: Royal Pericles will either win New Zealand's biggest juvenile prize at Te Rapa this afternoon, or finish out of the money.

The classy youngster's horror draw in the outside barrier of the $500,000 New Zealand Bloodstock Classique will either undermine him completely, or he will have enough class on the opposition to overcome the massive disadvantage.

It has totally polarised opinions on his chances.

This column suggests you give the dashing grey the benefit of the doubt.

Royal Pericles' last-start third in the Eclipse Stakes at Ellerslie when he missed the jump completely, showed he was not just a speed juvenile.

He tried to flip himself when being saddled, became upset and as a result was slow to jump. He settled last and to run on strongly into third against opposition which was as least as strong as, and probably stronger than, the field he faces today, says a lot about his grit and determination.

They are the two qualities he will have to rely on if he is to win today.

Trainer Bruce Wallace has a lot of faith in Royal Pericles and is comfortable that he has a good chance of settling at the back of the field and making a late dash at the leaders.

Even if he is unable to achieve what some believe is impossible today, you know you are going to get your money back in his next couple of starts.

On what he has shown he is worth the risk.

Blue Skies was expected to win at Ellerslie on January 14. It was her first start for nearly two months and her second placing does not eliminate her from the chances here.

She has displayed rare talent on a couple of occasions.

In a field that could throw up 10 or 12 different results, the southerner, Italia, as well as Ifionlyhadtime, Redbreb and Mon Reve are all realistic chances.

As you would expect for a meeting like this where there are good stakes, there are a few standouts in the supporting races.

You're My Angel (No11, R1) looks one of them. Her two efforts so far have been terrific; she flew home from near last for a close second to Beersheba Knight over 1400m on debut at Tauranga then made ground strongly to be only two lengths away after a very slow start at Ellerslie a couple of weeks back. Her style of racing probably suits Te Rapa better than either of those tracks and it is also left-handed, the way she is trained at Cambridge. Kincert (No1) will get a race eventually and is always a trifecta chance, as is Total Control (No2).

Clarissa (No3, R2) is at least an each-way chance, and on her very best form she would go close to winning. She has had a bit of a breather since a useful fourth at Ellerslie on January 1, which followed two excellent performances, either of which would just about get her the money here. Awesome King (No4) was swamped after leading at Trentham last start, but his overall form is up to this.

Domenico (No8, R3) has been waiting for 1400m and it should be enough to take him close today. Drawn beyond midfield will probably help - it should prevent him being boxed in on the rail if he is as slow away as he has been so far.

On form, Kay's Awake (No1, R4) should just about win. But 58kg is a lot of weight for a 3-year-old filly to carry - that's 59kg with the 1kg allowed for a jockey vest - even if there is not a huge handicap scale on the race. She deserves to be favourite, but play around in multiples with the likes of Mr Jinky (No5), City Affair (No3), Ballymore Lass (No6) and Inshelucky (No7) and don't be surprised if Vercos (No14) runs a race fresh.

Kurabeel (No16, R5) looks a real staying prospect in the making. She has had only the two starts and her last-start second after covering ground from an outside barrier is enough to launch her to favouritism here. Stay with her, even if she is beaten here.

Despite the 58kg topweight, Pacific Dancer (No1, R7) should be too good, even if the race has a suggestion of a trap about it. The odds won't be brilliant and it might pay to go easy on this one.

Wahid (No1, R8) would have won the Wellington Stakes if he'd run straight and it was enough to say he should take this. His preparation for the Derby will ease him up in distance to the 2000m today. Congaline (No7) is on the verge of a big win. He has not had the greatest luck in his last couple of starts and if he can cover slightly less ground this time he will be right in the frame. Abbey Drive (No2) is a trifecta must.

Pentempo (No9, R9) has performed well at Te Rapa, which is important these days. She was unlucky at Avondale last start and found the shorter Tauranga home straight against her when she flashed home there on January 3.