"I took the last reading for the day just now and it was a Dead5," said Fulford just after 4pm yesterday.
"But with more rain coming in and not much wind around I think it will be a Dead6 by the time the sun goes down.
"And then I think it will stay very close to that range overnight.
"With the way the weather has been this week the ground temperature has dropped and the track also isn't getting as many daylight hours as it does in the middle of summer. If that ground temp drops even one degree it changes the evaporation rates enormously.
"So if it is really hot tomorrow and we have some wind it could come back to a Dead4 but I wouldn't be surprised if we started the day as a 5 or even, maybe, a 6."
After firm tracks for much of the last two months there will be plenty of trainers who will welcome some cut in the ground today, especially in the 3200m marathon of the Barfoot & Thompson Auckland Cup and the $200,000 Sistema for the juveniles, who are always at risk of feeling their still-developing joints.
But as great as those races promise to be the main attraction for most today is the battle of the thoroughbred queens Melody Belle and Danzdanzdance in the $200,000 Bonecrusher Stakes.
While neither of the wonderful mares will be disadvantaged by a more forgiving track, it almost certainly helps Danzdanzdance more.
Her extravagant action that sees her bring those grey front legs down hard should enjoy a more forgiving surface and co-trainer Chris Gibbs was smiling during his constant weather updates yesterday.
"All we wanted was a little give, the chance for them to get their toe into it," admits Gibbs. "So the rain we have had helps and now I am looking forward to the race like everybody else.
"We don't get many races like this in New Zealand, two of the best horses in the country going head to head. Melody Belle is a great mare but it is not just about her and us because we could both get shown up, there are some very good horses here.
"But we are going in happy, we have a confident jockey and I wouldn't mind tracking Melody Belle into the race."
The latter's trainer Jamie Richards acknowledges a little rain helps Danzdanzdance but says it won't dull his mare's personal performance.
"She is very well and ready for the 2000m now and the track won't bother her," he offers.
And who would win, if Danzdanzdance is tracking Melody Belle into the straight, waiting for her to crush their older opponents and then slingshot her?
"Well that would be interesting, wouldn't it," smiles Richards.
"But maybe that won't happen. Maybe a horse or two will get between them in the running. And even if it does, when our mare has hit the front in her races all season no horse has run past her. She will be in for a fight, I'm not worried about that."
The TAB had flipped favouritism last night, with Melody Belle in from $3.40 to $2.90 and Danzdanzdance easing, regardless of the weather.
But if the two darlings of New Zealand weight-for-age racing engage in a drag race down the Ellerslie straight just before 5pm today for a few wonderful seconds the tote will not matter. We might, if we are lucky, get a special climax to Ellerslie's summer of racing and even the hardened punters among us will cheer the winner regardless.
CUP DAY
• What: Auckland Cup day
• Where: Ellerslie racecourse
• When: Today, first race 12.40pm.
• Highlights: $500,000 Barfoot & Thompson Auckland Cup; $200,000 Sistema Stakes; $200,000 Bonecrusher NZ Stakes.
• The track: Rail out 2.5m, track rated between Dead 5-6.
• Watch: Live on Trackside 1 from 10.30am with Punters Lounge.
