Cran Dalgety is not sure whether Saturday's Harness Jewels have come too early or too late for Smiling Shard.
He does know that either way the glamour pacer of the entire day could be in big trouble.
As a millionaire pacer and the first Kiwi home in the recent Interdominion series, Smiling Shard would seem to have a 4-year-old race - even one as prestigious as the Jewels - at his mercy.
But that won't be the case, with Smiling Shard out to $6.50 in the markets after a dramatic last-start failure in the Messenger at Alexandra Park.
That left the Canterbury trainer scratching his head and he says the past month hasn't provided many answers.
"Basically, I think the Interdominions just bottomed him out because apart from that he seems fine," said Dalgety.
"Ideally, he would be in the paddock now but we have a $150,000 group one race just down the road from home against his own age group so what do you do?"
While the long season has taken its toll on Smiling Shard, Dalgety also thinks only having a month since the Messenger is too short a break.
"He needed a freshen up, but really a month hasn't been long enough so I am not sure he will be right at his best for Saturday.
"Which makes it bloody hard because it is a good field and we have the second-line draw."
Smiling Shard finished second to Pure Power at the Ashburton workouts on Saturday and the latter is the pacer everybody is talking about.
He has been on a steep improvement curve in the past six weeks and now looms as the horse to beat in Saturday's great race.
"The way he went at the workouts on Saturday we are going to be flat beating him. They all are."
While Dalgety is hopeful with Smiling Shard on Saturday he is even more realistic with Donegal Delight, who will start the longest-priced second favourite of the day.
She meets wonder filly Carabella, who is listed as the $1.10 favourite for the 3-year-old girls' event.
"I am thrilled with my filly because she has kept improving and now Bettor Cover Lover is injured I think I might have the second-best filly in the country.
"But even then we have no chance of beating Carabella.
"She is a freak and is 10 lengths better than us so I'd be happy just to run second to her."
Dalgety's star 2-year-old Orl Black has copped the notorious outside of the front-line draw in the colts' final, made worse by the fact all the favourites have drawn inside him. "I don't see that being a lot of fun for him so really he will need a lot to go his way to have any chance."
With so many dominant favourite the Harness Jewels markets remain stagnant, with Pure Power edging his way toward favouritism in the 4-year-old event as Franco Emirate starts to drift.
Meanwhile, former Harness Jewels winner then disqualified Muscle And Power returned after a three-year break to win at Cambridge on Tuesday.
Racing: Dalgety hopeful rather than confident
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