Racing: Daffodil our best hope in Cup

New Zealand punters are expected to back Daffodil (outer) heavily in the Melbourne Cup. Photo / Hawkes Bay Today

Daffodil is New Zealand's spring darling heading into the Melbourne Cup today, but can she overcome an outside draw to deliver the country its first Cup since Ethereal in 2001?

The jury is hung.

On Australia's Racing Retro on Sunday, Sky Australia newshound Andrew Bensley said Daffodil, who won the Australian Oaks in the autumn, was his top tip, only for former jockey Alf Matthews to shake his head.

Corey Brown, who rides Shocking in the Cup, thought her a good chance, while ratings analyst Dominic Beirne said he had her fifth in his assessment of Australasian horses in the race.

New Zealand race analyst Neil Davis from www.formpro.co.nz has a question mark over her, especially with her barrier draw of 21.

"Daffodil could possibly win it, but from that draw she is going to need all the favours and I am not so sure she will get them."

Davis believes she had her chance in the Caulfield Cup, when she finished fourth, 3 lengths from winner Viewed.

The TAB is expecting New Zealand punters to ignore the naysayers and plunge their "one-bet-a-year" money on her tomorrow.

But it eased her out $1 to $15 yesterday, as stronger money came from punters for some of her rivals.

"She is our third or fourth worst result, but we have lengthened her out as money comes in for some of the outsiders, like Crime Scene, Basaltico and Leica Ding," said bookmaker Stephen Hunt.

"We are not laying Daffodil, but we do have a question mark on her staying the two miles.

"But she will be one of the top two worst results for us come start time of the race. It's usually the case in previous years that if a Kiwi wins, we are in for a big loss regardless of whether it is a $5 shot or a $50 shot."

Garry Chittick, who bred and owns Daffodil with his wife, Mary, admits there is a question mark over her breeding for a 3200m race, with her sire No Excuse Needed accomplished at 1600m.

"But in staying races they run a lot quicker you have got to be able to quicken up, they are not as dour as they used to be."

He takes issue over the queries about her Caulfield Cup run.

"She got tangled up between Cima De Triomphe and another horse all the way down the back straight ... and we lost about three lengths then.

"We then had to come out of the bend six or seven wide, so nobody did more work than she did to get so close to the winner who got a charmed run on the rails."

The draw, he admits, is a pain.

"My assessment is if she can be put to sleep in the run she has a good chance of running the two miles out. But if she has to be used early, she probably won't."

It will be the job of jockey Chris Munce, who won the 1998 Cup on New Zealand mare Jezabeel, to get her an economical run.

As a breeder, Chittick does not go chasing Cups races, but he decided to go for the Melbourne Cup after Daffodil's AJC Oaks win.

"When she won the Oaks, her jockey that day, Hughie Bowman, said she would make a wonderful Cups horse, so we thought we would have a go."

Bowman also thought the Melbourne Cup would be a better bet than the Caulfield Cup, because of her ability to relax during the running.

If Daffodil can't win the Cup tomorrow, Chittick hopes Master O'Reilly can, for he is by O'Reilly, one of the top stallions at the Chitticks' Waikato Stud.

And Master O'Reilly, who was fourth in the Cup last year, is Davis' tip. "His sectionals in his last couple of starts have been great and he is ready to run the race of his life. At $15 he looks a great each-way bet."

Like most pundits, Davis expects Viewed and Alcopop to figure in the finish, while Shocking is his longshot.

Of the other Kiwi horses, the TAB prices did not move yesterday. Capecover remained at $41, Harris Tweed at $61 and Gallions Reach and Spin Around, $101.NZPA