KEY POINTS:
Howie Mathews considers one factor when assessing the chances of his Wellington Cup runner Taikorea.
"How many will stay two miles?" Mathews said yesterday.
"It doesn't matter whether they are in peak condition, whether they're in form. If they can't run two miles they are not going to
win."
Taikorea was yesterday a $61 outsider on the New Zealand TAB's fixed-odds market to win the $300,000 Wellington Cup at Trentham today.
Mathews, who trains north of Wellington at Otaki in partnership with wife Lorraine, said if Taikorea could see out the 3200m distance of the group one feature it would be 80 percent of the battle.
The cup field is very low on proven 3200m performers. Only last year's Wellington Cup winner Envoy and the Sydney visitor Respect have won at 3200m.
Another four horses - Dimondsontheinside, Genebel, It's All Good and Arreviderci - have been tried at 3200m but none have filled a placing.
Mathews said he must place the same 3200m query over Taikorea.
"I've have to have a cloud over my horse as well," he said.
"He's never been over the distance and how do I know whether he will stay two miles."
Mathews, who won the Wellington Cup in 1979 with Big Gamble, said Taikorea did, however, give the impression a long distance might not find him out even though he had yet to race beyond 2200m.
"I've had a lot of stayers and he would be in the dour category.
"He's got quite a high cruising speed so he would need a lot of favours for the first mile. I wouldn't want him up front going cut-throat with another horse or anything silly.
"But if he got a nice, soft trail, I think he'll stick as good as most of them in the field."
Taikorea showed staying potential when posting a hat-trick of wins over 2100m and 2200m just over a year ago. He has won only one race in the interim but Mathews said several things had gone wrong.
The horse was taken to Brisbane last autumn but he did not settle in and failed to fire in two starts.
"He wouldn't eat a thing," Mathews said of Taikorea's Brisbane trip.
"We moved him down to [trainer] Bevan Laming at the Gold Coast and he started to pick up but it was all too late. So we thought we would cut our losses and come home."
Mathews then earmarked Taikorea for the New Zealand Cup last spring and the horse appeared on target when scoring in open class over 1800m at Riccarton last September.
But New Zealand Cup plans were scrapped when Taikorea put in two disappointing runs at his next two starts and it was back to the spelling paddock.
"He might have had a virus or something."
Taikorea confirmed a Wellington Cup start when third to Everswindell in the Wellington Cup Trial Handicap (2200m) at Trentham last Monday.
Mathews was happy with Monday's race considering Taikorea muffed the start and then looped the field to sit outside the leader.
It had been a similar effort at his previous start when fifth in a rating 92 event over 2000m at Awapuni on January 13 when once again having to be used up early after a poor beginning.
Mathews said Taikorea was normally a good beginner but he would be asking for a starters' assistant to attend to the horse today to help avoid the repeat of another tardy beginning.
The weather was fine in Wellington yesterday and track was rated good with a penetrometer reading of 2.4. The track was watered last night and this could again be done tonight.
Willy Smith yesterday remained a clear favourite at $4.80 ahead of Envoy ($5.50), Respect ($6.50), So You ($7) and Everswindell $8.
One shortener was Dimondsontheinside who was an unlucky fifth in last year's cup. A bet of $3000 was placed on her at a price of $18 and she was yesterday into $11.
- NZPA
