KEY POINTS:
One of the most telling factors for punters is that tonight's major race at Addington could well be a vastly different event in November.
The $14,000 feature pace brings together unbeaten (10 wins) rising talent Ohoka Rebel and more established stars Nick Off Holme, Special Ops and London Legend.
The latter has been on a winning page this winter, effortlessly dealing to his younger rivals and many believe he should start favourite tonight.
But before you anchor London Legend in Pick6, consider the fact trainer Cran Dalgety has not nominated him for the $1.2 million New Zealand Cup in November, whereas the other three big names tonight are Cup entries.
Dalgety says that is for two reasons, both worth factoring into your punting tonight.
The 9-year-old is at his best these days over the shorter distances, admits Dalgety when discussing London Legend's chances over 2600m tonight.
"And, to be honest, I think the Cup horses may be just too good for him.
"He has been in great form over the winter but may not be able to match the very best horses, like Changeover, these days."
While London Legend will be aided by the small field, helping negate his 20m handicap, Dalgety's reluctance to nominate him for the New Zealand Cup suggests he is vulnerable tonight.
Ohoka Rebel looks the most ready to take advantage of any frailties.
The comeback pacer, who missed most of last season through viral problems, has improve with every start this campaign and paced a fast 3:16 for this distance last Friday.
And if he races up to that form and can work his way to the lead tonight his older rivals will be hard-pressed to catch him.
The mares, Nick Off Holme and Special Ops, are definitely good enough to win but could need further racing to reach peak fitness.
"My mare is getting there and I think she has a chance this week but more racing will help," said Nick Off Holme's trainer Paul Kerr.
Special Ops has been a big mover in the second half of last season and now looks a worthy New Zealand Cup entrant - but she is a stayer, who may not be suited by a possible slower early pace tonight.
Other highlights tonight include the return to Addington of the highly-talented Moment Of Truth, who impressed coming from the rear when winning off a 60m handicap at Oamaru last start and reverts to 20m in the main trot.
