Racing: Culminate seeks to back up

You sometimes wonder how valuable statistics are in horse racing.

Some can be very dramatic.

There is one that could have an influence on the outcome of tomorrow's $200,000 Land Pride Easter Handicap at Ellerslie - the lead-up time to winning performances by good-class South Auckland mare Culminate.

Could.

Culminate is backing up seven days after an extremely tough run for second to Juice in last week's $200,000 NZ Bloodstock Breeders Stakes at Te Aroha.

That's something she has not previously been successful at.

The lead-up days to Culminate's career wins are 32, 28, 34, 27, 29, 18, 27, 126, 42 and 49.

There is possibly a warning in talking stats too literally in that the first time she tried a one-week back-up was in these same two races two years ago when she was unluckily and narrowly beaten in the Breeders by Special Mission then, a week later, finished third to Pasta Post and Sterling Prince in the Easter when the stable had not wanted her to lead, which she did.

The other one-week occasion was when Culminate was narrowly beaten in the Breeders Stakes at Pukekohe last year and was then beaten 1 lengths in the Eagle Technology Stakes at Ellerslie.

So punters have to weigh up whether last week's gut-buster, which saw Culminate run out under pressure in the final stages, has taken the edge off her.

Trainer Stephen McKee says Culminate seems to have come through the race well.

"She's probably in her final preparation so she needs to go around while the tracks are still pretty good.

"She's weighted right up to her best though. She carried 57kg in the Thorndon and found it too tough against the geldings and she's got only half a kilo less this time.

"I'm hoping the draw doesn't become a factor."

Perhaps more significant to the result is how difficult a task Culminate faces.

She will come out of gate No 17 (if there are no scratchings) and has to carry 56.5kg in a strong handicap line-up.

Juice beat her at level weights in last week's race and this time Culminate is required to concede 1kg to Juice.

Culminate has a good Ellerslie record, but it is not an easy track to either lead on or sit on the pace in a big race.

This field is full of strong chances and you can almost guarantee there will be four or five horses powering at the leaders from the 250m. If Culminate holds them out it will be a magnificent performance.

But she can.

She probably would have won last week's feature but for being attacked in the lead down the back straight.

As mentioned before last week's race, the massive mark she has on her scorecard is her close second to the outstanding Typhoon Tracy at group one level in Sydney last autumn.

That performance would win this race.

One of those likely to be running strongly at Culminate is La Etoile, who was so impressive powering home from last to win the Rich Hill Mile over this trip at Ellerslie on January 1.

She had a break after the Thorndon Mile and was storming home late over 1200m at Tauranga on March 27.

For a group-rated winner, La Etoile comes in nicely on 53kg and has drawn the rails. Watch for her late in the race.

Run Like Al was nothing short of massive in winning that 1200m Tauranga sprint La Etoile ran in. He carried 58kg and looked like he had 48kg on his back as he dashed away late after being slow early.

He has 56.5kg this time and will be competitive with that, although his wide draw will do him no favours.

They brought the house down when Sir Slick won at Manawatu last start and they'll do it again if he wins the Easter under 59kg.

He looks better at Ellerslie than he used to, but his record there of three from 26 is still well below his overall record and this will be tough for him.

Obsession, Tell A Tale and Vonusti are other chances in a field full of winning hopes.

EASTER HANDICAP
* Culminate had a tough run when second to Juice in last week's group one.
* It will be a major achievement if she can bounce back to win Ellerslie's feature metric mile.
* It will pay not to forget La Etoile's Rich Hill Mile victory in January.