"Michael [Walker] says he has improved and, logically, he would have to improve. Two-and-a-half months between runs, travelling across the world, first-up at 2000m ... I really felt before the race whatever he does, he'll improve for the Cox Plate." Before returning to Australia, Criterion took on a gruelling campaign that included Hong Kong, Royal Ascot and York.
But the Europeans, who won the Cox Plate last year with Adelaide, are doubting Criterion, based on his European form, is good enough to beat their horses tomorrow.
The biggest doubter is the experienced James Bester, spokesman for the powerful Godolphin operation which produced Adelaide last year and this time has Highland Reel who, after drawing a perfect barrier, has replaced Criterion as $5 favourite.
It is the strong European form that Bester believes gives the internationals the edge.
"Criterion has to be respected because he has come back in good form and ran well in this race last year, but my point is that simply it is a different level of form.
"Fawkner and those sort of horses are always competitive here but I don't believe that Fawkner would be competitive in the Champion Stakes or the Arc de Triomphe or any of those races." Like Adelaide last year, Highland Reel won the Secretariat Stakes at Arlington in the United States at his second last start before heading to Australia. At his last start he finished fifth to eventual Prix de l'Arc de Triomph winner Golden Horn in the Irish Champion Stakes.
One Bester concession is that the locals have the home-ground advantage.
"It is a uniquely Australian race and that gives the locals an edge normally.
"Our horses have to come to Moonee Valley and handle a tight course with a big crowd right on top of them. It is impossible to say how he will handle it until the day because Highland Reel won't have seen anything like that in his life before.
If there were any concerns it would be how the horse would handle that gladiatorial environment and unique amphitheatre.
"But he's a well-educated horse in possession of himself, so I think he'll handle it." Last year Adelaide was forced to drop back to the rear early from the outside barrier and his long sweeping run around the field to win flattered some of the others. Bester says that from barrier No 4 Highland Reel will at worst be in mid-field in running.
"The kind of pace you find here in Australia is very different to European racing. A horse that races close there might still find himself a little further off the speed but he won't be lingering out the back.
"We are fortunate to have found another horse that profiles so well for this race." It might be a touch unfair to judge Criterion solely on his European form after racing on three continents.
But there was one worrying quote. When James Bester was asked to compare Adelaide with Highland Reel, he said: "I consider Highland Reel the better." In that case New Zealand might need luck to get the middle leg of the famous treble up.
Sir Owen Glenn's well-travelled horse is looking to back up Mongolian Khan's dynamic Caulfield Cup win
Cox Plate
Highland Reel (4) $5
Criterion (7) $6
Winx (1) $7.50
Arod (5) $8
Kermadec (10) $8
Preferment (9) $13
Fawkner (14) $15
Hartnell (3) $15
Complacent (6) $17
Gailo Chop (8) $21
Happy Trails (13) $21
The Cleaner (2) $21
Mourinho (12) $31
Pornichet (11) $31
