KEY POINTS:
Trainer Peter McKay is happy to admit running 3-year-old Alamosa against Xcellent today is an experiment.
McKay has everyone scratching their heads about how the talented Alamosa will handle the tough assignment in his first test against the older horses.
The Matamata trainer admits he's guessing as much as the rest of us.
"I'll know a lot more about where we are with him after this."
There are two reasons for McKay sending Alamosa out to eyeball Xcellent in the $200,000 Zabeel Classic rather than running against his own age group in the $150,000 First Sovereign Trust Great Northern Guineas.
The first is that the Zabeel is a group one race and as such would be an enormous boost for Alamosa's potential stallion career.
And secondly, McKay does not believe the Guineas will be a truly run race because so many of the runners are inexperienced beyond 1600m.
"They'll run hard to the first turn, then they'll almost certainly put the brakes on," he said. "It won't be a truly run race and when that happens the best horse doesn't always win.
"The Zabeel Classic will be truly run and the best horse on the day will win it.
"There will be speed on with Slick in the race and if we can get a trail behind the speed and bounce off the leaders in the home straight Alamosa is going to get his chance.
"I'm not silly enough to say he's going to go out there and beat those horses, but he'll get his chance.
"We'd love a group one with him and if he could do that against these older horses then it would be a big thing."
We have lots of examples of 3-year-olds being too good for the older horses in the autumn around March and April, but few cases of where that has been attempted at Christmas.
The Derby was traditionally run Boxing Day, so any 3-year-old with group one aspirations always tackled that. The second issue is that most 3-year-olds start a growth and strengthening process between December and the autumn and are generally a lot stronger - and therefore tougher for the older horses to beat - around March and April.
McKay says he can already see the strengthening in Alamosa.
"When he raced at Wellington (second to Rios in the Guineas) he lightened up a bit and I had to be careful because I was taking him to Christchurch.
"But after Christchurch (where he was narrowly beaten by The Pooka in the 2000 Guineas) he did really well and I was able to give him a few gallops before the Avondale Guineas."
At 52kg, Alamosa gets 4kg off fine mare Dorabella and McKay hopes the 7kg the colt receives from Xcellent, Sir Slick and company will be enough.
"It's a big call to say he can beat these horses, but it (the weight) brings him into it."
