The toughest rival Copper Beach faces at Alexandra Park tonight isn't any of the eight mares in her race.
It is a curse that has dogged New Zealand's best fillies for a decade.
Copper Beach was voted three-year-old filly of the year last season after crushing wins in the New Zealand and Victoria Oaks followed gutsy efforts in the classics earlier in the season.
But this season she has struck the same wall as so many of the other fillies who have won that title.
In five starts she has recorded just one placing, her form mirroring that of other leading fillies of recent seasons, like stablemate Pullover Brown, who never regained her best after a stellar second season.
While there have been the odd exception, most obviously Kates First who went on to win the Auckland Cup, many of our top fillies have struggled to take the step up the following season.
It could be the hard racing, or the large amount of time spent in training which reduces their opportunity to develop and strengthen. Or it could be the lack of racing restricted to four-year-old mares to give them an easy transition into grade racing.
Regardless of why the trend has developed, Copper Beach is in grave danger of perpetuating it tonight.
She produced a good run for second fresh-up last month but since then has looked out of sorts, a fact admitted by trainer Geoff Small.
"She has had a few seasonal problems and things that haven't gone right for her," said Small.
"But she really has to start standing up and showing her best again now.
"She worked well this week and I'd like to see her go out there and give it to them this week."
If Copper Beach can "give it to them" she may earn a trip to Addington next Friday and a shot at the $100,000 Breeders Stakes.
"If everybody is happy with how she goes when she comes off the track then she might head to Christchurch."
For Small to even be considering taking in New Zealand's best mares next week he must be regaining his confidence in Copper Beach and that is all punters need to know tonight.
She comes in well tonight because although she has won eight races she is assessed as only a four-win mare, meaning she draws inside her only realistic rivals Precocious Title, Wicklow Express and Blarney's Atom.
Copper Beach may not have the gate speed to lead easily but most of those drawn inside her would surely be happy to trail her and she looks set to control the race, either from the front or the parked out position.
Precocious Title was stunning winning at Cambridge two starts ago and can be forgiven her defeat on this track last week in a far stronger field.
Wicklow Express is a tough mare who would appreciate a hot pace but that looks unlikely and she was disappointing by her standards when well-beaten by Precocious Title the last time they clashed.
Tonight's meeting will provide punters with a challenging Pick6, with few anchors for those chasing the $75,000.
The best they may be able to do is restrict their selections to just two in race seven, where Conte De Cristo and Esprit Flash should be too good for their rivals.
Racing: Copper Beach gets chance to lay curse to rest
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