If New Zealand is to have a live Derby hope in Australia it has to come down to Congrats.
The talented staying 3-year-old took a giant step towards getting to the A$2 million ($2.3 million) AJC Derby when he scored a gritty win in Saturday's $75,000 The Oaks Stud Manawatu Classic.
The baton rests clearly with Congrats after Darci Brahma's weakening eighth in Saturday's A$500,000 Rosehill Guineas.
We won't know about the campaign until Roger James assures himself that Congrats has satisfactorily come through what was a relatively hard race.
Most in racing here are asking the question whether Congrats is good enough to take on the top-tier Australian 3-year-olds.
James is asking a different question. He has no doubt Congrats is up to the class, what he's worrying about is the timing of the lead-up races.
"When the Derby here was run on Boxing Day it allowed you the time to back off and have a specialist preparation for the AJC Derby.
"Running the Derby here in March now, does that mean that we are not able to produce our horses into the AJC Derby as well as we used to? I'm not saying it does but I'm asking the question.
The Australian 3-year-old form has been mixed and therefore it's difficult to line up likely Derby prospects.
Analysing the opinion of some pretty good Australia form buffs, indicates the Australians are an even lot with no standouts, but they are not a bad lot.
James has taken only two horses to Sydney for the Derby and says both were suited by having had specialist preparation.
Roysyn finished fifth in that amazing year when the first four home were Octagonal, Saintly, Nothin Leica Dane and Filante, who between them won something like 26 group one races.
"Danamite finished third in the Derby and I had the same gap and timing for Sixty Seconds, who ran in the Derby at Ellerslie then won a group one in Sydney before heading to the Oaks.
"Congrats is right up to those horses and might be fractionally better than a couple of them."
If he travels, Congrats will be ridden in Sydney by Michael Rodd.
There is always a Derby in Queensland.
"The money in Sydney is tempting, but I won't be there just because of the money."
Darci Brahma went forward under Michael Walker to sit outside the leader early in the Rosehill Guineas then ended up one out and one back.
He was under pressure at the 250 and losing ground on the leaders in the closing stages.
"We'll almost certainly go home," said trainer Mark Walker.
Racing: Congrats steps up for Derby
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