KEY POINTS:
Yesterday was a desperate search for positives.
Anything at all to cling to for the devastated connections of horses about to run in what now looks certain to be a rain-sodden $2.2 million Telecom New Zealand Derby at Ellerslie tomorrow.
Heavy rain for Auckland tonight and tomorrow - a prediction earlier in the week - now looks extremely likely.
Owners and trainers were yesterday left wondering exactly where their chances lay in New Zealand's richest horse race given the near certainty of badly rain-affected footing.
Donna Logan who, with her training partners, will produce the one-time favourite Le Baron says she has no idea how her horse will fare.
"He didn't much like it the other day," she said, referring to Le Baron's below-par sixth on a slow surface in the lead-up Championship Stakes two weeks ago.
"I'm hesitant to have any sort of confidence because the race is going to end up being the survival of the fittest."
Logan checked every possible weather source.
"I came up with rain Friday night and the eye of the predicted storm due to hit Auckland around 1.00pm Saturday.
"If that's accurate the Derby won't be a gimme for anybody.
"I couldn't be happier that we've got the horse in as good a physical shape as you can get him, but the overall scenario is a concern."
La Baron is a get-back type stayer on a firm surface, but producing a long sprint like that becomes much more difficult in the wet.
Instructions will no doubt be to this time keep him handier, but that will be the case for most of the runners, so the first 500m down the home straight the first time will be interesting.
A devastating leg injury yesterday has stopped the connections of Sufficient worrying about how the Zabeel colt would manage the wet.
The Sufficient scratching allows Fears Nothing into the field and Leith Innes, who was to ride Sufficient, has landed the mount.
Ken Kelso echoed the sentiments of practically all trainers when he said the Derby will be one big guessing game if the track gets to heavy.
Down The Road, the runner he prepares with Thomas Russell, is one who appears capable of operating in the wet.
He showed that when he powered to the finish to take the lead-up Championship Stakes at Ellerslie two weeks ago.
"I'm not worried if the track gets slow, but if it turns to heavy then I'm not sure," said Kelso.
"I wouldn't know how he'd handle a bog track if it got to that, but in trackwork at home working in the wet he's always seemed comfortable.
"Put it this way, I'm not as worried about the wet as some of them will be.
Kelso rates Australian-trained Coniston Bluebird as the horse to beat.
Dawn Williams co-trains the sole South Islander in the Derby, The Meista, who led up and was run down by Down The Road in the Championship Stakes.
"Obviously like everyone we've aimed his prep at being right for this one race and it's all come together."
RAIN WORRIES
* Heavy rain has the connections of Derby hopefuls extremely worried.
* Former Derby favourite Le Baron is very unlikely to be suited, says co-trainer Donna Logan.
* Sufficient was scratched yesterday after suffering a leg injury.
* Jungle Boots remains the $6.50 favourite.
