Racing: Classic on cards if rain holds

Forget the hype, the Xcellent-Makybe Diva A$3 million Cox Plate match-up is nothing like the Bonecrusher-Waverley Star battle.

This is much more intricate.

Bonecrusher v Waverley Star was simply a foot race between two very brave and similar horses.

It was always going to be which heart gave in first. Fortunately for hundreds of thousands of thoroughbred fans who still revere it as the greatest horse race in memory, neither did.

Only time will tell whether the end result at 6.30pm tomorrow will be as enthralling, but the tale of the tape on Xcellent and Makybe Diva is potentially more fascinating.

Makybe Diva might be the darling of the Australian turf, but she is a true warhorse, trying to come back from Melbourne Cup glory to take a Cox Plate, something only two great champions Might And Power and Phar Lap have achieved in 75 years.

She has head-shaking stamina and that rare ability to race successfully on any surface, yet grow two more legs when it rains.

She faces Xcellent, the epitome of the freshman with only seven race appearances in his CV.

Xcellent can certainly stay, but it is his phenomenal acceleration that makes him great.

Those backing Makybe Diva into $2.10 favouritism are banking on the fact no horse has ever come from behind the mare and beaten her.

But she has never had a stayer as fast as Xcellent behind her in a competitive race.

Which brings it down to tactics. Who will sprint first? Despite the gamesmanship, it's difficult to imagine that trainers Lee Freedman (Makybe Diva) and Mike Moroney will want their stars to engage in a Bonecrusher-Waverley Star war from the 900m.

Glen Boss on Makybe Diva will want to make it the toughest staying test possible. Michael Coleman will want to be able to sprint Xcellent at the Australian mare quickly from the home turn.

Yet how they achieve that will not determine this result - track conditions will.

Australian bookmakers have been aware for some time that many of the big punters are holding off waiting to determine the condition of Moonee Valley's StrathAyr surface.

The rain that hit Moonee Valley on Wednesday night had no effect on conditions. Course curator Greg Barker said the 10ml predicted for last night was actually required.

"What worries me more is that the bureau has altered its forecast from showers on Saturday to persistent rain."

Xcellent suffered his only defeat when he failed miserably to handle a shocking wet track for the AJC Derby in Sydney at Easter. Forget that, conditions were diabolical.

Xcellent is not a complete duffer on normal rain-affected footing, but there is no question his electric acceleration - that magnificent ability to bounce off the ground like a gazelle - is slightly blunted.

Regardless of the weather, the StrathAyr surface is lush and deep, not conducive to Xcellent's type of sprinting. A very firm Flemington would suit him better.

Coleman was delighted with the feel of Xcellent at Breakfast With The Best at Moonee Valley on Tuesday and co-owner Paul Moroney says the horse has continued to thrill his stable.

"Brother Mike said his blood yesterday was so spot on he didn't have to give him any significant work, Xcellent just paceworked. It's up to the weather now."

And the racing gods.

If they smile, this has the potential to be the other Cox Plate they'll talk about forever.