You can make a strong case for Mistrale and Bodie in tomorrow's $100,000 Rotorua Cup.
For Mistrale if you like horses on the improve and for Bodie if you're big on the horses-for-courses theory.
It's rare at this time of year to see top-class stayers on the up. Generally they are tailing off their campaigns and the Rotorua Cup is the last of the top handicaps to be run before the wet tracks of winter kick in.
Trainer Murray Baker is confident that he has Mistrale on an upward spiral. He freshened her for a crack at the Easter Handicap, the 1600m of which would normally be a touch too short for the Volksraad mare, and the three 2000m races she has tackled since have her fit for the 2300m here.
"She raced a bit one-paced at Te Rapa last start," said Baker.
"She hadn't been comfortable in her work, she'd been pulling a bit, but she's dropped the bit in training lately. I'm very happy with her work going into this race."
Rotorua suits some horses and not others. Mistrale failed at her only start on the track, but that is hardly conclusive.
"It should suit her, she's a nippy little horse," says Baker.
Mistrale showed she had the class to win a race like this when she burst through to take the Queen Elizabeth Handicap at Ellerslie on Boxing Day.
A similar effort here would be good enough to win this and the 53.5kg is comfortable enough to allow it.
Mistrale was ridden last start by Mat Cameron and before that Andrew Calder, who was aboard for the Queen Elizabeth victory. This time Baker has engaged Lynsey Hofmann, who has won on her.
Bodie won this race two years ago and has been placed at his other two starts on the Rotorua track.
The 57kg looks daunting, but it is less of a task than the 57kg he carried into sixth place against a better field in the Hawkes Bay Cup last start.
Most of the chances are within 4kg of him and his career form says he's earned the handicap.
Rider Bruce Herd liked the Hawkes Bay Cup effort.
"He was caught off the track practically all the way from a wide barrier.
"I was following Etoile Du Nord and thought he was still going to run third halfway down the home straight. He tired, but he was entitled to.
"It was a good effort in a good field and I'm looking forward to riding him in this race after his effort there. If anything, he should be a little improved for that race."
From the No 1 barrier, Herd should be able to dictate exactly where he wants to be in running with Bodie, who can really finish off his races when provided with an economical passage. He stormed through in the home straight to take the cup two years ago.
Aeroforce One is having his first look at Rotorua and is a problem. The distance will suit him ideally, but he is a big, long-striding type who are often found out by the tight Rotorua circuit.
If weight is going to anchor Bodie then Aeroforce One on 52kg is the one most likely to capitalise.
If he can get the right purchase on the Rotorua surface, Aeroforce One has the right level of ability to figure here.
"He's in grand order, but how he's going to manage the track I have no idea," says trainer Roger James. "He's very well though - in fact he's kept developing through this campaign. He's a more mature horse now than when he went down to Trentham to win the St Leger."
Jim Wallace is similarly pleased with Madame Shinko, but is worried about her wide barrier draw.
"I can't do much about that and I'll simply leave it to Lee [Tiley] to work out what to do about it, but I don't see many options other than dropping to the back of the field."
Apart from the one glitch when she suffered a heart fibrillation at Trentham two starts back, Madame Shinko has been very consistent.
Being bogged down in the Trentham mud last start did not help and the surface tomorrow will suit her a lot better.
Rotorua Cup
* Mistrale is a stronger chance than her form on paper would suggest.
* The Cambridge mare will appreciate stepping up to 2300m and trainer Murray Baker is confident she is on the improve.
* Previous Rotorua Cup winner Bodie looms as a danger.
Racing: Class acts have strong claim
AdvertisementAdvertise with NZME.