Interestingly, one of the contributing factors is that you can probably make a case for and against each of the quartet.
Wise Man Say is by far the best performed in the National, but the 71kg topweight over 5600m around a stayer's track like Riccarton is about as tough as it gets. Even if you haven't backed him, cheer Wise Men Say if he wins because the memory will last for decades.
Amanood Lad is only fractionally better off on 70.5kg, but he is probably a fractionally better weight carrier than Wise Men Say. Yes, he's 14, but he didn't look like it winning the remarkable Koral Steeples a week back.
Remarkable because the two favourites were out of the race early and Amanood Lad got home to win because the leader crashed at the last.
Late defections have slightly weakened this year's National field, but the even nature makes it exciting and because of his age Amanood Lad will get a massive reception if he can pull it off.
He's the slowest horse I've trained, but he's a genuine stayer.
Southerner Tai Ho has the right form projection, winning three of his last four, none in anything like the class of this race. He has to be in the running, but there might be a question whether the absolute tenacity to win tomorrow is there at the moment.
Then there is the favourite — Chocolate Fish, winner of just one career race and relatively inexperienced, even as a nine-year-old with just 23 races behind him — meagre for a steeplechaser at this level.
Despite all that there is a sense of timing around this bloke. He was coming home nicely when hampered by the fall at the last fence a week ago in the Koral.
"He's done brilliantly since then," says trainer Shane Brown.
"He's the slowest horse I've trained, but he's a genuine stayer," Brown said.
Chocolate Fish showed that stamina in last Saturday's Koral Steeplechase (4250m) when the leader Notabadrooster fell in his path after the last fence, just as he was coming into the race strongly.
Chocolate Fish recovered and, aided by his brave rider, Shaun Phelan, jumped over Notabadrooster and set out after the winner, Amanood Lad, to close to within a half-neck when finishing second.
"It was a top effort by horse and rider, too," Brown said. "Shaun is one of the best in the business."
Early in his career, Chocolate Fish's lack of speed saw him fail to clear maiden ranks on the flat, though he picked up five placings from 11 starts, and he was well-beaten in his two hurdle starts.
But when switching to steeplechasing he has proved a good money-spinner for his connections, which include Brown's partner, Amy Ames-Durey.
He won his steeplechase debut at Hastings 13 months ago and a month later Brown threw him in the deep end, contesting the Koral/Grand National Steeplechase double.
"People thought I was mad running him in the Grand National in just his third start over fences, but he wasn't disgraced," Brown said. "He's now had the benefit of that experience and we might reap the rewards on Saturday."
Chocolate Fish finished fifth in last year's Koral Steeplechase, then fourth to Upper Cut in the Grand National Steeplechase and since then he has been a model of consistency over country with his sole blemish being when seventh in the Waikato Steeplechase (3900m) at Te Rapa.
"He just never handled the track at Te Rapa that day," Brown said. "But he hasn't gone a bad race since then."
- additional reporting, NZ Racing Desk
