By MIKE DILLON
No standouts at Tauranga today, but loads of value.
The sudden change back to reasonable winter footing is likely to trap a few in-form mudders if the showers stay away, and more than a couple of mild surprises will be thrown up.
The interesting runner is Arduous (No 2, R5), widely considered a good thing after a three-straight winning streak.
But those wins, particularly the last two, were on bog tracks and it remains to be proven she can handle a better track to the same effect.
No question she is freakish in the wet and she may well win by six today, but she is jumping from C2 to PQ class carrying topweight and there is a risk.
We need good horses and let's hope she proves up to it, but an each-way saver on Dupre (No 3) and fresh runner Ariba (No 5) might be prudent.
Likely Story (No 4, R1) is an improver, but he can be a fraction sluggish and would not need to get too far back in this capacity field on a track as sharp as Tauranga. If he is somewhere close to them on the home bend he will be a real chance to outfinish the oppsition.
The wide barrier draw Lord Sedona (No 1, R2) has copped is a bit frightening, but he has lightning speed when he needs it and over 1400m he might get across the field to the rail before the first bend.
If he does he can take this race on better footing than he struck when third to Promise Keeper at Te Rapa last start. The Fenian (No 8) is the improver.
You just had to like the determination in the finishing effort of Elevenses (No 1, R3) at Ellerslie last week. That was a draining effort, but she looks tough and round in condition and unlikely to be affected by the outing.
Plenty of opposition here with High Reason (No 4) and Scream (No 2) dangers and Ynot Pita (No 11) capable of an upset.
Will Prevail (No 8, R4) is a filly going a bit further and has been freshened since winning at Paeroa on May 28.
She races close to the speed, which will suit the pattern at Tauranga today, certainly early in the programme.
Like most of the races on the card, there are plenty of chances here and Shading (No 2) and Our Five Star (No 1) are definite dangers.
The middle leg of the TAB treble is the toughest on the programme. Call Minder (No 7, R6) deserves respect.
She has been freshened since winning here by 19 lengths on a track which was more of a bog than a racing surface in April. As well, she goes well fresh and seems capable on all types of track conditions.
Any one of seven or eight could win, with last year's winner Petanque (No 4) and Manchu Warrior (No 6) not out of it.
Chase Alida (No 1, R7) looks better placed than when beaten in the Cornwall Handicap under 58kg at Ellerslie. The 56kg on what is basically a 53kg minimum to where the chances end, looks more comfortable and he likes this track.
Watch for improvement from Classic Spirit (No 3).
Don't drop Zaitan (No 1, R9) for his failure at Ellerslie last start. He is a lot better than that and while he faces a tough task here jumping to 1600m, he is not out of it.
Labasa (No 4) and Prefer To Race (No 6) will be tough.
What a nightmare barrier draw for Galiano (No 1, R10), but the 1600m barrier allows a decent run to the first bend and he may get lucky.
He certainly has the ability to take this.
Racing: Change in weather could bring change in fortune
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