Outside of owning Sunline, making money off the champion mare at Counties today will be as tricky as Kerry Packer's midweek kidney operation.
Even the fact the track conditions will be almost certainly easy rather than firm is in Sunline's favour.
The footing was 2.9 easy at midday yesterday, club officials pleased they were not dealing with a firm to fast surface and risking a skating rink and abandonment if the predicted showers eventuate this afternoon.
"After what happened at Te Rapa and Paeroa recently we didn't want that," said chief executive Murray Earle.
Neither did the McKee stable, desperate to get a preparatory run into Sunline before the Hong Kong International meeting next month.
The $60,000 Auckland Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes comes down to either Sunline winning by a margin, or Sunline not being at her best.
The trifecta is the only hope of value and then only if there is a 10-1 chance in there somewhere.
Predicted second favourite Tall Poppy may be vulnerable if the track is moving - she is a definite fast tracker. Giovana and Party Queen can boost the trifecta and Sequel is a must. What about something like Angel Baby.
The three likely favourites in the $100,000 Eagle Technology Counties Cup, Rijeka (No8, R8), Kaapeon (No3) and King Keitel (No7), will be unaffected by an easy track. Rijeka left little doubt she was on the verge of her best again when third at Ellerslie last start and trainer Graham Cox says the mare has improved further since that run. She is as good as any middle distance stayer in the country at her best and this race on her home track, looks perfect. King Keitel has been freshened since scoring three on end and while a rain-affected track would eliminate a few of the opposition, he would manage brilliantly.
The $30,000 Lindauer Bowl (1000m) is run at 4.42 and presents a nightmare without the knowledge of whether the showers arrive in advance. The interesting part of that is the barrier draws - many of the leading chances have drawn nightmarishly wide, but that could turn into an advantage if rain arrived significantly before the race and chopped the inside going up. Early favourite Travellin' Man (No14, R9) is a long strider who may not be suited if the track deteriorated. He looks the goods on reasonable footing, but Jaiapeno (No8), Volkaire (No3) and a value runner in Madhuri Dixit (No15) might be worth a look if it rains.
Three smart sorts, Krystal Klear (No4, R10), Beacon (No3) and Sir Albert (No8) go round in the last and all three would reasonably manage an "off" track. Beacon looks like he is heading through the ranks pretty quickly and Krystal Klear could not have been more dashing winning under 58kg at Avondale. While this is tougher, not many mares win with 58kg in any class.
The fourth by Chris (No1, R2) at Te Rapa last start was not disastrous, but it was below his previous efforts. He is good enough to be given another chance today. His normal big finishing efforts are suited to this track.
Our Mr Bowie (No5, R4) was simply too bad to be true when beaten favourite at Avondale last start. He is smart at best and with two wins from three starts on easy footing, you can give him one more chance with some confidence. Kingdom Come (No4) is a lot better than his recent record suggests but will probably need reasonable conditions.
There are plenty of chances in Race 6, but two definite value runners all multiple bets are Cheeky Baby (No11) and Herbie (No13). Cheeky Baby, making a fresh start, is underrated and could get home at good odds, while Herbie had little luck when resuming.
Racing: Champion cuts chances of making major money
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