KEY POINTS:
On paper, rapidly rising jumping star Proposition looks unbeatable in tomorrow's $40,000 M@D Small Hawkes Bay Steeplechase.
Trainer Ben Foote says he never thinks like that.
"I used to ride over fences.
"There are no certainties in jumps races."
A valid point, but Proposition probably comes as close as you can get.
He jumps proficiently, but more importantly he jumps safely - his fencing during the dramatic victory in the McGregor Grant Steeplechase at Ellerslie on Queen's Birthday Monday was a feature of the big race.
The Ann Browne-trained Primo Canera is talented and looks one of the toughest to beat.
In the McGregor Grant at Ellerslie Proposition jumped the last fence no more than a couple of lengths in front of Primo Canera and raced away to beat him by 25 lengths.
It would be a major turnaround if Primo Canera beat the favourite this time.
After a lot of rain in Hastings, the weather was due to improve today and tomorrow. The Hastings track was listed as heavy yesterday and any improvement would suit Ben Foote.
"When he was racing on the flat he stayed on better when the tracks weren't too bad," said Foote.
Proposition is part owned in Hawkes Bay and has already won a steeplechase on the Hastings track.
Although he almost certainly believes his main rival is bad luck, Ben Foote rates The Jolly Dancer one of the toughest he has to beat.
"I thought he went well when he was third to Triplepan in the Manawatu Steeples.
"He didn't get too many favours that day and went a good race.
"Plus he's got the second-best rider in the country on him (Tommy Hazlett)."
The quote was a humorous indication that Foote considers his own rider, Jonathan Riddell to be the best.
After riding Proposition to victory at Hastings three starts back, Riddell jumped off to ride Just A Swagger into fourth behind Proposition in the McGregor Grant, but is unlikely to make the same mistake again.
Triplepan made a huge jump forward to go from winning a maiden steeplechase at Hastings two starts back to victory in the Manawatu Steeples.
He finished that last race off very strongly, but if you believe in times for the longer races, Proposition ran 12 seconds faster when he won at Hastings than Triplepan did the same day.
The TAB odds in the Steeples: $2.80 Proposition, $4.80 Triplepan, $5.50 The Jolly Dancer, $6 Just A Swagger, $7.50 Primo Canera, $9 Captain Jingle, $12 No Hero, $21 Repete.
There is little to chose among Gull, Ravanelli and Spirit Of Alaton in the $40,000 Taradale Club Hawkes Bay Hurdles, the other feature jumping race, and that's exactly the way the TAB bookies see it.
Gull is the $3 early favourite, but only 50 cents cover the three horses mentioned.
Only one length separated Gull and Spirit Of Alaton in the Awapuni Hurdles a couple of weeks back after the pair hacked away at each other out in front for the final round of the 2900m, Spirit Of Alaton finally getting the better of the scrap near the finish.
Gull actually meets Spirit Of Alaton half a kilo worse off this time by virtue of having being backed up for a win at Wanganui a week ago yesterday.
In terms of form reference, the best run going into the race might be Ravanelli's winning run at Ellerslie last start.
He looped the field in the final round and jumping brilliantly, put a space in them in the closing stages.
Odds: $3 Gull, $3.20 Ravanelli, $3.50 Spirit Of Alaton, $8 Bejayjay, $9 Bennyosler, $13 Blackheart, $26 Waikiki Prince.
