Racing: Caulfield odds are short but attractive

How you bet today depends on which side of the Tasman you're having a bet.

In New Zealand you might have to search out some value, but in Melbourne you should take the short odds about Sphenophyta in the A$2.5 million ($2.8 million) Caulfield Cup.

Because they are run at pace and luck plays such a vital role, Caulfield Cups are not ideal vehicles for short-odds betting, but, realistically, how can they beat Sphenophyta?

Only bad luck can do that.

He beat most of these carrying a lot more weight in the weight-for-age Turnbull Stakes last start and drops to a luxury 50kg - 51kg when Danny Nikolic posts overweight.

The way they run the race as opposed to the slowly-run Turnbull will be ideal and his staying power combined with Nikolic's big-race temperament produces a powerful force.

We all know luck beat Phar Lap, but it's going to take some serious downside to lower Sphenophyta unless, of course, one of these untested international rivals this year is something very special.

His stablemate Our Smoking Joe with Jim Cassidy in the saddle and the Graeme Rogerson-trained Activation are right in the race as trifecta chances.

If the Avondale track comes up as good (and indications were last night that it would) Clifton Prince (No1, R7) looks to be one of the favourites who might offer value on the programme. You only have to look at the Matamata sprinter's form to see why he's at the top of the handicap with 58kg - he's hardly ever out of the money. He is a lot better placed here than he was over 1600m in the Matamata Cup last start and will give a great sight even with his 58kg. The small field will allow everything a shot at him in the home straight, but he fights hard.

Hitman (No1,R2) couldn't catch Solvini over 990m at New Plymouth last start, but then neither could some of our best sprinters over 1200m at Rotorua last weekend. He should be improved by that and can make a race of it with the favourite Monicas Legacy (No3).

Fasaadi (No4, R4) looked a next-upper when he finished third when fresh from a spell to Cross Lease at Ellerslie last start. He should get the perfect run from the No3 barrier. Ntamack (No1) could be the surprise. The 1kg Chad Ormsby takes off his 58kg will help.

Prangelica (No8, R5) might not be an everyday horse, but she has talent and is hard to head off when she puts her mind to it. Matamata last start was one of those occasions when she flashed home late for a close third to Figure Of Speech after looking to be out of the race halfway through. Stabinthedark (No2) doesn't do much wrong.

Climbing High (No1, R6) is another you don't catch everyday, but he's not the worst stayer around. The big plus here is that he is dropping way back in class, from R92 to R76 and this is hardly a top line-up. At first glance the 58kg looks daunting, but there is only 2kg from top to bottom in the handicap and it won't be relevant. Quartze (No6) will probably do better than he did at Matamata.

Last preparation Pentempo (No6, R8) looked a very promising stayer, to the point where trainer Moira Murdoch ran him in the Pentanes Auckland Cup. He hasn't started since and stayers can run a bold 1400m fresh from a break. This is a strange form race and it might just be that a horse like Pentempo stands up. Our Mavourneen (No4) gave in to finish last when resuming from a spell at Hastings last start, but is the type to improve quickly. She covered some ground after drawing out that day and might be better placed here.

Race 9 presents a nightmare for Pick6 punters - a 1400m maiden with any number of runners on debut.

Smashing Pants (No1), John's Girl (No6) and Adorn (No8) have form already on the board and it might pay to ignore the last-start failure of Cape York (No2). Of the first starters, the trials winners are Goal Keeper (No9) and Martini Time (No11).

The last is not a great deal easier.

On her third at Ellerslie after leading, Zerello (No12, R10) might take some pulling back around Avondale from an inside draw.

Promethean (No1) had no chance after he walked out of the gates at Matamata and The Fuzz (No16) left maidens on debut as if he hadn't finished his form.