For a superstar used to winning, a placing is not usually a pass mark, but it just might be for Kiwi glamour boy Catalyst in the A$500,000 The Shorts at Randwick in Sydney today.
The domestic racing sensation of last season returns to kick off his 4-year-old career against some of Sydney's sprinting elite over 1100m, a distance he has never raced.
In New Zealand against our sprinters, Catalyst would be a hot favourite to get away with racing short of his best, but sprinting is what they do best in Sydney, and even if the local crop of older sprinters isn't vintage, they are incredibly hard to beat at jump and run racing.
So today, Catalyst finds himself at a very early fork in the road: Win, and he will almost certainly get a slot in next month's A$15 million Everest. Lose, and he heads down a path toward the A$7.5 million Golden Eagle on October 31.
Catalyst oozes X-factor and has already proven in Melbourne last February he can match it with Australia's big boys. But fresh-up with one trial under his belt, he could find things happen a lot faster than he is used to today. So if he settles handy on the fence from the ace, the gaps come at the right time and he produces his best, he can win without surprising anybody.