Carabella's bad draw in tonight's $125,000 NZ Oaks has been tempered by a distinct lack of confidence from her rival trainers.
The champion pacing filly will start from one on the second line in the classic, which would appear the only draw she could get beaten from after thrashing most of her rivals last Saturday.
But her rival trainers aren't just worried about Carabella, they are worried about their own form.
High-class fillies Maid In Splendour (barrier one) and Miss Elsie (three) get their chance, on paper at least, to threaten Carabella but their trainers say the fillies are not at their best.
"I thought my filly was terrible last week," said Maid In Splendour's trainer Steven Reid.
"She pulled way too hard so we have made a gear change but she also didn't race up to her best.
"So I am not confident we can beat a filly like Carabella."
Miss Elsie's trainer Colin De Filippi feels the same after his stable star was fifth in the Nevele R Final last Saturday.
"I am not sure if it was because we burned early but she didn't race up to her best," De Filippi told the Herald.
"And its hard when you race a filly like Carabella because she just keeps running."
De Filippi points out a year's gone by. Rival drivers may have tried to keep Carabella pinned against the markers from her tricky draw tonight but that no longer seems to be a common tactic.
"They always seem to get off the fence these days and she probably will do so. She will be hard to beat."
With an even break Carabella should continue her dominance, with Tatijana Bromac so good when storming into second last Saturday she looks the main threat again, with Paradise City providing the value for trifecta players.
Western Cullen faces the same draw at Carabella as favourite in the $180,000 Sires' Stakes Final tonight but has the added concern of in-form, talented rivals drawn better.
The best of those may be Franco Hemmingway but the best value in the race should be Texican, who was the run of the race when second to Western Cullen in the Sales Series Pace last Saturday.
He only needs to produce that form again to be a great each-way chance.
The Winter Cup looks an ideal race for Power Of Tara, who although he faces a 20m handicap still comes in well under the conditions and will love the 3200m.
The hardest to beat could be Four Starzzz Flash off the front. His driver Dexter Dunn starts the night off on 193 wins in his relentless pursuit of a season record.
WEEKEND WINNERS
Best bet: McKay (Alex Park, R5): Beaten by great drive last Friday. Loves this track.
Each-way: Let's Get Serious (Alex Park, R7): Doesn't trot the bends great on this track but configuration of field helps and has the master in sulky.
Unlucky: Dougie Maguire (Alex Park, R1): Galloped and made up huge ground last Friday. Hard to beat if he behaves.
Revenge: Springbank Sam (Addington R4): Massive second in Northern Derby. Meets good field but has huge motor.
Raider: Delight Brigade (Addington, R10): Has high gate speed, distance suits and favourite drawn poorly.
Racing: Carabella worries rival trainers
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