The Keepem-Magic Cape clash in today's $50,000 Bonecrusher Stakes at Ellerslie is fascinating.
Both are unbeaten and each has turned in spectacular performances to record three dashing wins between them.
They haven't met, so which is the best?
This race may not come down to talent - professionalism is probably what will decide it and on what we've seen so far that equation comes out on the scoreboard at around 12-0.
In the words of trainer Shaune Ritchie, Magic Cape is a clown.
Keepem is the best horse Magic Cape has faced. There is a suggestion he could be really good, in which case Magic Cape won't want to be giving him four lengths' start out of the barriers as he has got away with doing in both his races so far.
If the field breaks evenly, it should be a great contest, but the chances are slim that Magic Cape has turned around his tendency to begin slowly since last racing, therefore Keepem looks the safest wager.
It's the first leg of Pick6, so you would want both horses included. Barring extreme bad luck, it will be a surprise if one of them does not win, so just taking the pair looks reasonably safe.
Twinkling (No10, R6) will give a great sight in the second Pick6 leg. She had her problems when backed and beaten on a very heavy track at Ellerslie last start and is likely to be much more competitive this time. She is classy at best and Royce Dowling and Linda Laing should have a good campaign with her. Mandela (No2) should appreciate this surface better than the very heavy conditions at Ellerslie last start. He actually did well that day to be less than three lengths from the winner and deserves a winning turn. So does Vamperalla (No8).
While the Bonecrusher for 3-year-old colts and geldings looks clear-cut between the two favourites, the fillies in the $50,000 Soliloquy Stakes present a nightmare for Pick6 punters. The race is jammed with potential talent and a win from any one of 10 would occasion no surprise.
This could be a trick race. Lance O'Sullivan's Keep The Passion (No2, R7) confirmed her ability with her storming Taupo win, but the worry is the extra 2.5kg she has to concede the runner-up that day, Imananabaa (No4). The Jim Gibbs filly can do a few things wrong, but she's talented and is suited by the set weights conditions. Difficult to know where to point beyond that pair, but Soelin (No3) and Roma (No5) have displayed talent.
Baldessarini (No1, R8) and Woodbury Lane (No2) coming out of the main sprint should have made it a bit easier in the Vincent Collins Farewell and perhaps it has, but it's still a tricky race. One of the keys might be the 2kg Lee Callaway is taking off Mi Jubilee's (No7) back. She is a talented sprinter, goes well when fresh from a break and looked smart easily winning a barrier trial on her home track at Wanganui recently.
Leigh Valley (No9) is another who races well when fresh and was also a nice barrier trial winner. The slight question mark is the track - Leigh Valley has raced only once at Ellerslie and was unplaced. Pin Up Boy (No5) was fractionally disappointing in being narrowly beaten when resuming at Ruakaka, but he might be a quick improver and needs to be included, as does Mohican Brave (No12), who found 1600m a bit far at Awapuni last start.
If you took Superalloy (No1, R9), Clarissa (No2) and Luckshan (No3) inof Pick6, you're probably not going to be far away.
Superalloy went a terrific race to finish third, promoted to second, in testing conditions at Ellerslie and you would imagine him being better suited on today's firm track. Clarissa is smart when on her game. She showed she was close to that in winning at the Ellerslie barrier trials and has won her only start when fresh.
Luckshan was racing well on heavy tracks during the winter before being spelled, but he is just as good on firmer surfaces as he showed winning at the recent trials.
Unfortunately, the last leg, Race 10 is a nightmare.
Include Stripped (No2), Wantitoshine (No8), Victorious Dancer (No11) and Zerello (No12) and hope.
Perhaps pray.
Gallant Son (No9, R1), with a Cox Plate pedigree, could go close in the hurdles to open the day. He found the terrible track conditions against him in the Great Northern last start, but is a different horse on firm ground. Mr Hefner (No7) is a real danger.
With Zabeat pulled out through injury and Trebla aiming at the New Zealand Cup, Garden Party (No10, R3) gets his chance in the Mitchelson Cup. That was a nice effort when close up behind Cedar Manor at Hastings last time and this is hardly a classic staying line-up.
Racing: Can't Keepem apart any more
AdvertisementAdvertise with NZME.