One of New Zealand's top breeders has his fears about what may happen at Karaka today.
And it is not that Rod Croon, who will take nine yearlings to the Australasian Classic standardbred sale, is being pessimistic about the sale, just where the elite yearlings may head.
That means the stars of today's sale could come back to bite the New Zealand industry in the future.
Croon is regularly the leading vendor by averages at Karaka and he is hoping the Australians will boost today's sale, buoyed by their favourable exchange rate, the sale of Harold Park cash injection and lack of horse numbers. That, coupled with stagnating stakes in the South Island and some areas of the north, means the local buyers' market could be flat and the Aussies will become bigger-than-usual players.
But although Croon welcomes the Aussies, he also warns New Zealand breeders could be left behind.
"It will be great to have so many Australians here and I think a lot of them will be looking at the top end of the market," he said. "But where we have to be careful is that they don't buy all our top fillies. If they are smart enough to do that then in five years' time, or even a generation later, their sales could be as strong as ours.
"While we are taking our horse there for sale today I would like to think some local owner and breeders would look at buying fillies with a long-term view because there could be real value this year."
Croon's concerns are legitimate as big-spending Aussie buyers have already bought stars like Shezoneoftheboyz and Kahdon and chased champion filly De Lovely hard in the past year.
With Australian breeders wising up to the fact fillies from our best families are the key to updating their breed, there could be some spirited bidding today.
One of the star fillies could be the sister to former champion juveniles Gotta Go Cullect and Gotta Go Harmony, which owner Sue Martin says is going to Karaka to be sold.
"She is not an early type like those other two but she is a lovely filly, longer in the body and will make a racehorse," said Martin.
She will have plenty of opposition for the star filly billing, with the catalogue very strong.
One of the biggest compliments paid to the Karaka complex is the fact some very well-bred southern yearlings have been sent north to be sold here, rather than at the Christchurch sales.
There are plenty of yearlings by rave sires Christian Cullen, Bettor's Delight, Art Major and Mach Three, while the trotters have some rare strength in the north, with Monarchy set to have a good sale.
But, as with most standardbred sales, the really big-money buyers tend to eye off the same 20 lots, meaning vendors in the middle of the market will need to be realistic or they will be taking their babies home.
The sales move to Christchurch on Monday for three days.
Yearling sales
* The standardbred yearlings get their turn at Karaka today.
* Around 160 yearlings will go under the hammer starting at 11am.
* Australian interest should be strong in what is a very good catalogue.
Racing: Breeder fears sting in Australian purchases
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