Any high-class 3-year-old with natural speed that has drawn the ace and is carrying just 53kgs is going to appeal in a race of this uneven quality but Bivouac's standing grew enormously last weekend without him even leaving his box.
Because Yes Yes Yes smashed Australia's best sprinters in the A$14m Everest in track record time after Bivouac had beaten him in their previous two starts.
Taking a line through that and a happy and healthy Bivouac, free-wheeling in front around the Valley, deserves his odds-on quote.
Pike the form analyst knows what he is up against.
"Maybe if he runs up to his form against Yes Yes Yes and with the ace draw we can't beat him," says Pike.
"But stranger things have happened. He is a 3-year-old at the Valley, first time under lights and barrier one could be great or he could get taken on. Funny things can happen in a $1 million race so while he might be too well off at the weights, I couldn't be happier with our horse.
"I can see him sitting just off the speed, maybe even outside the leader, trail or one pair back and hitting the line hard.
"I think we can win because he is spot on but obviously that might depend on what sort of run Bivouac gets and how he performs."
One factor that could aid the Kiwi, a two-time group one sprint winner over the Queensland winter, is rain, forecast for Melbourne today.
Although Pike is playing with the big boys tonight he could be in for a profitable day back home tomorrow, with Loire in a wonderful Soliloquy Stakes at Ellerslie and two surprise stable reps with great winning chances at Riccarton.
Loire has looked a miler in waiting but has drawn wide in a super fillies field over 1400m at Ellerslie. "There is no doubt she can win but it is a very, very good field and drawn wide she will get back and be hitting the line hard," says Pike.
"But her real go will be the 1600m of the Guineas at Riccarton."
Pike has sent Sherwood Forest and Sacred Day to Riccarton tomorrow to build their fitness for the 2000 Guineas and Couplands Mile during Cup week respectively.
Sherwood Forest was a massive fifth in the Hawke's Bay Guineas last start after being off the track the entire race and the long-striding son of Fastnet Rock looks to have been crying out for the wide open spaces of Riccarton. He should have most of his rivals, with the exception of Aotea Lad, covered in the War Decree Stakes and Pike opts for him as his best of the weekend.
Sacred Day is a class stayer fresh up at 1400m tomorrow but a lot may come down to the tempo of the race and how dialled in he is starting the last 600m as he was a horse who could go walkabout mentally last season. "The way he has been trialling I think he can win, even at the 1400m, and he is a real chance in the Couplands Mile [Nov 13]."
KIWIS IN THE VALLEY
Tonight: The Bostonian: A$1 million Manikato Stakes, 11.30pm (NZ time)
Tomorrow: Madison County, A$300,000 Schweppes Mile, 6.10pm
Te Akau Shark, A$5 million Cox Plate, 6.55pm
Consensus, A$200,000 Powerflo Stakes, 7.45pm
