One of racing's greatest certainties is about to be beaten.
James McDonald will be overhauled by Opie Bosson for the Jockeys' Premiership after looking to be a $1.05 chance a month or so back.
That is provided Bosson does not get seriously hurt in the next six weeks.
Bosson, generally regarded as New Zealand's best, has had little competition in the seriously depleted jockey ranks in the past month or so and has made the most of it.
His sole win at Te Rapa on Saturday, on the Graeme and Debbie Rogerson-trained juvenile Dating, took him to 134 for the season, just 11 victories behind McDonald, who is riding in Ireland.
McDonald's manager Gary Cossey confirmed yesterday that it is almost certain the apprentice will not be returning to New Zealand before the start of the new season on August 1.
Rumours have been circulating that Bosson's streak of recent winners has prompted McDonald to cut short is European riding to return to protect his lead in the premiership.
Cossey said he wouldn't be betting on that.
"The original plan was to ride in Ireland, which he is doing at the moment, then in England then head to Singapore to ride out he rest of the season.
"As far as I'm aware that's all still in place.
"I know there are plenty of stories going around that he'll be back in New Zealand early, but that's not going to happen."
Which means, barring accidents or a lengthy suspension, Opie Bosson is a certainty to pick up the 12 wins he needs to edge ahead of McDonald in the premiership.
There are 25 North Island race meetings Bosson can ride at before the end of July, plus a further five Sunday meetings in the South Island he could attend if he needed to.
He has only to ride a winner every second raceday to easily take the title. He is riding well above that average.
Bosson has precious little in the jockey ranks to stand in his way.
Take this last week. Suspended were Lisa Allpress, Matt Cameron, Paul Taylor, Michelle Wenn and Jeremy Walsh.
Injured: Mark Hills, leg injury, out for up to three months; Vinnie Colgan, back injury, out for three months; and Mark Sweeney, back injury, out for some time.
Disqualified: Troy Harris, due to return from January 1, 2012. Jason Waddell has been stood down after returning a recent positive drugs test.
Overseas: Cory Parish, riding in England, due to return October 1; Craig Grylls, riding in Brisbane due to return June 19 (but has been suspended); Michael Walker, riding in Brisbane until further notice; Noel Harris, riding in Malaysia until further notice; Mark Du Plessis, riding in Hong Kong until further notice; and Jason Collett, riding in Sydney until June 24.
Which means Bosson has only to remain suspension and injury-free.
Last season, McDonald won the Premiership, riding 125 winners with Bosson in sixth place on 68 wins.
In 2006/07, Bosson finished third behind Lisa Cropp and Chris Johnson.
Cossey says James McDonald is enjoying the fiercely competitive Irish riding scene.
"The other day he had five rides at The Curragh, picking up two thirds on a $50 chance and a $30 chance. "He also finished fifth in a listed stakes race."
McDonald had been riding out almost exclusively for trainer Tommy Stack, but has lately been moving around a bit to make more contacts.
"It hasn't been easy breaking in, but he knew that was going to be the case," said Cossey.
Opie Bosson and James McDonald have easily the best strike-rate statistics of jockeys who have ridden 10 winners or more.
Bosson heads the list with a winner every 5.41 rides and McDonald is second on 5.69.
McDonald has had 825 rides for the season and Bosson, so far, exactly 100 fewer.
Bosson clearly holds the stakemoney record with his mounts picking up $3,054,781, ahead of McDonald's $2,147,305.
Mark Du Plessis, Lisa Allpress and Chris Johnson sit third, fourth and fifth on the premiership.
* * *
Meanwhile, McDonald's father Brett says She Rules, impressive in winning at Te Rapa on Saturday, will not be seen again until the spring.
The underrated mare has come back for just a two-race campaign this winter for the Cambridge trainer.
"The only reason she was put into work at all was to stop her getting too fat for spring racing.
"These two races have kept the weight off her nicely," said McDonald.
Michael Coleman rode She Rules beautifully in fourth spot, challenging at the 350m and winning with a bit to spare to further boost her already impressive Te Rapa track statistics.
RACE TO THE TOP
* James McDonald, once the hot favourite, looks certain to be pipped for the title.
* Opie Bosson is today only 11 wins off the lead.
* McDonald is expected to be riding in the Northern Hemisphere until the start of the new season.
* Bosson has at least 25 race meetings he can ride at to get the 12 wins that will give him the Premiership.
Racing: Bosson closes in on jockeys' premiership
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