She is coming off a winning streak of four and with a reasonable draw to play with and Danielle Johnson aboard she deserves to be favourite.
It takes an exceptional horse to win six from eight starts and Francaletta has let no one down. Her only win on a track that could be described as firm was at Ellerslie this time last year when she slowed up a mid-range field in front and sprinted them home easily in the closing stages.
The remainder of her victories have been on tracks rain affected to some degree. She is unbeaten in four attempts on slow footing. Given the Ellerslie victory, albeit in easier company than this, she must be accorded a real chance and if there was a suggestion of a shower between now and mid-afternoon tomorrow, it will be a great assist.
It would be an even greater assist to stablemate Deals in Heels, yet to race on a firm surface and five times a winner from seven attempts where there has been a range of rain assist. She is making a step up to race this field at level weights, but has shown she is capable in any class when conditions suit.
The value runners are Coldplay, Somethingvain and Let Her Rip. Coldplay has had no luck, running out out of room when resuming in stakes class at Te Rapa then striking unsuitable wet tracks on the first two days of the Hastings spring treble. This race is within her range.
Somethingvain showed she was underrated when narrowly beaten in this race a year ago. She should be improved by her first-up third at Ellerslie and also better footing than she struck that day. Let Her Rip goes her best races when fresh. She struck rotten luck with racing room when resuming at Flemington and came from near enough to last on the home bend to be just 3.5 lengths away in a decent field. Her second-up fourth behind Francaletta at Hawera was a fraction below her best, but she is capable of stepping up here.
There is a sense of timing about Awapuni visitor Five To Midnight in tomorrow's $100,000 SSangyong Counties Cup.
The top of the Cup market has an even feel to it and Five To Midnight, with not a great deal of form on paper coming into the race, has had just the right amount of racing this preparation to set him up for a tough 2100m.
The last of his three runs resulted in a close fourth behind one of his main rivals this time, Maygrove in the Feilding Cup. There is a 2kg swing in the weights in favour of Five To Midnight against Maygrove here and, in theory at least, that negates the two lengths that separated them last start.
Maygrove and stablemate Saint Emilion are strong chances. After leading, Saint Emilion was swamped at Ellerslie last start and finished 2.3 lengths behind Chance To Dance at weight-for-age at Ellerslie. Time before he led again in the Livamol at Hastings and although swamped again, finishing fourth, he was just threequarters of a length behind winner Wait A Sec. That is the type of form that could steal this race.
Zambezi Warrior is a chance and his odds would shorten with a shower or two.
● An inside draw could be the key to an overdue change of fortune for Group One winner Marky Mark at Pukekohe tomorrow.
Marky Mark has won twice since taking the 2015 Gr.1 Courtesy Ford Manawatu Sires' Produce Stakes (1400m) at Awapuni, but in several of his subsequent starts he has been unlucky, as was the case in both his starts last autumn.
He lost his rider in the Gr.2 Windsor Park Japan NZ International Trophy (1600m) at Tauranga then copped a check when unplaced at Te Rapa the following month. And again fresh-up at Ellerslie earlier this month luck didn't go his way.
"He drew wide at Ellerslie and was trapped out and had to work too hard," co-trainer Moira Murdoch said. "It was just too tough for him.
"He's only a little horse and because of that he gets knocked around a lot in his races, but he tries."
Marky Mark has drawn the ace in the Fasttrack Insurance 1400 tomorrow and Murdoch is hoping that barrier will enable him to get a softer run and be saved up for his best work at the finish.
- Additional reporting NZ Racing Desk
