Racing: Big money still on Xcellent despite weather

Here's a remarkable thing - right when there's a real possibility of a rain-affected Moonee Valley surface undermining Xcellent for today's Cox Plate, the strongest betting yet came for the Kiwi champ.

As the Xcellent camp sweated over dicey Melbourne weather forecasts yesterday, huge money poured in to say he could down the the Australian darling Makybe Diva.

The volume was so great Victoria's TABSportsbet dropped Xcellent's odds from $9 to $7 - a massive move.

Even more remarkable is that the TAB's Gary Davies old Sport 927 radio that Xcellent, not Makybe Diva, was now the agency's biggest financial liability.

Colin Tidy, Sydney's biggest bookmaker, took a single Xcellent bet of A$13,500 ($14,000) at A$10.

You can only guess that the punters who took the odds on Xcellent before they knew the actual track conditions, were gambling that the New Zealander's odds would tumble in quickly if the track rating is good this morning.

Last night that looked unlikely. The 6mm that fell at Moonee Valley on Thursday night pushed the track into the dead zone for all of yesterday and the forecast was for possible thunderstorms overnight.

Showers are predicted for today and if they fall during the racing programme successive races would cut the surface up, exactly what Xcellent's camp does not want.

Co-owner Paul Moroney believes the biggest money for Xcellent will come this morning if the Melbourne weather looks clear. "I know some people who have flown to Sydney to back him heavily on the NSW TAB if the conditions are right."

Moroney and many of the his camp's followers arrived in Melbourne yesterday morning, went straight to Mike Moroney's Flemington stable and decked Xcellent out in his new corporate colours dress rug.

"We stood around in our new Xcellent panama hats, had a glass of champagne and looked at the sky and hoped the rain stayed away," he said.

One statistic you can ignore that has been bandied around is that Makybe Diva is a Moonee Valley maiden after three starts on the unique StrathAyr surface.

All three of those races were at an unsuitable 1600m and she was twice narrowly beaten in the Feehan Stakes on the course.

The other important fact is she is significantly better now than for any of those three previous Moonee Valley runs.

Her lead-up form has been stunning and there is a huge air of confidence in the Lee Freedman camp.

Xcellent's rider Michael Coleman has not ridden in a Cox Plate, but has been on a winner at Moonee Valley. He said yesterday he intends walking the track this morning.

The dangerous lightweight is 3-year-old God's Own, who was simply stunning winning the A$1 million Caulfield Guineas after being checked early.

He is trained by the master Bart Cummings and carries only 48.5kg.

The Cox Plate is not an easy race for 3-year-olds, but Savabeel won it last year.

Befitting the Southern Hemisphere's greatest weight-for-age race, millions of dollars and high-profile reputations go on the line at 6.30pm.