Racing: Big Cup's odds on Kelt win

Forget about him being expected to win, Xcellent will shorten up right behind Melbourne Cup favourite Makybe Diva if he wins tomorrow's $1 million Kelt Capital Stakes.

It won't only be New Zealand's punters watching our richest race, everyone across the Tasman looking to have a Melbourne Cup nibble - and that's just about everyone - will be tuned in.

Melbourne bookie Peter Coster said yesterday his Doublebet agency would slash Xcellent's Melbourne Cup odds to under $10 if he wins the Kelt.

"We've currently got him hovering around the $13-$14 mark, but he'll definitely be at single figures if he wins.

"I know he's expected to win and he'll probably get most favours in the race, but there'll be more money for him if he wins."

Coster said the weight of money this week told Melbourne bookies that Makybe Diva was almost certainly being set for an historic third attempt at the Melbourne Cup when earlier indications were that she would have the Cox Plate as her main mission.

Xcellent goes into the Kelt a deserved odds-on favourite ($1.85). Everything has gone right in his preparation and even the wide barrier draw was what his connections were looking for.

He will get back in running as usual, but having St Reims, a naturally fast pacemaker, in the field will set up the perfect tempo for him.

St Reims' best form is when he's been allowed to fully use his high cruising speed in front. Under 61kg on the middle day of the Hastings carnival, he was not pushed to lead, sitting third before challenging and finishing fourth, three-quarters of a length from Juicy Fruit Mambo.

Despite those tactics, it will be a major surprise if he doesn't lead this time.

As impressive as Xcellent's CV looks, with five New Zealand starts for five wins, if you really want to equate his chances tomorrow, replay his Mudgway Stakes win five weeks ago.

No matter how many times you watch it, the effort remains in the impossible basket for the next viewing.

He gave Miss Potential a huge start and picked her up easily, then Miss Potential beat most of these horses just as easily in the Stoney Bridge Stakes two weeks ago.

Horses simply don't do what Xcellent managed in the Mudgway and this race should suit him even better.

Balmuse is the big improver. He looked a touch on the "pretty" side when he tackled the Mudgway, finishing a top fourth, one length away from Xcellent, after a slight traffic problem in the home straight.

Forget that Balmuse even went round in the Stoney Bridge - he was wide while the winner, Miss Potential, was hugging the rail, and he did well to finish sixth.

He won this race last year, dashing past Starcraft at the 220m to quickly establish superiority.

Another likely to finally be at his best is Magnetism. Everything went wrong for him going into the Mudgway and his 15th placing reflected that, but it was a different story in the Stoney Bridge, when he finished third to Miss Potential.

He is not only fitter now, he will be much better stepping from the 1600m up to this 2040m.

"He's definitely improved," said Rick Williams, who manages the New Zealand bloodstock of big Australian owner Dick Karreman.

Magnetism raced just a little keenly early in the Stoney Bridge after being asked to take a forward position. He looked likely to be swamped completely in the home straight and fought back to take third.

The blow-out result would be Mandela. He has had a problem, but trainer Richard Otto feels the horse is back on track.

Mandela has huge talent and it would be no surprise if he formed part of the trifecta.