Mi Muchacho's biggest fan says he can't win tonight's Manukau Cup.
Trainer Richard Anderson is taking that view as his exceptional grey pacer makes his comeback to the track after his disastrous New Zealand Cup campaign.
Mi Muchacho's fortunes went from bad to worse on his trip to Canterbury, starting with a shocking cup trial and ending with a home straight gallop in the great race.
Anderson says the injury Mi Muchacho suffered when galloping on the unfamiliar Addington track during the cup trial ultimately cost him his cup chance.
"Even though he was passed fit to run by the vet it was affecting him in the cup and that is why he galloped," said Anderson.
"But I am sure he will be happy to be back at Alexandra Park because he goes his best races right-handed."
But Anderson acknowledges Mi Muchacho will be below peak fitness tonight and says the 5-year-old is only in the $20,000 race as a lead-up to the Auckland Cup on December 31.
"That is the main aim and I have worked backwards from there," said Anderson.
"He has to have this race and the Summer Cup on December 23 to be fit enough so that is why we are lining up this week."
Mi Muchacho has been to an official workout only once since returning home and was only asked to pace 3200m in a steady 4:33 during his main private workout last weekend.
"So he will have a lot of improvement in him and off that handicap [35m] in a big field he is up against it this week," said Anderson.
"There are a lot of good horses in there standing in front of him."
That may even prompt driver Peter Ferguson to try driving Mi Muchacho in the field for most of the race rather than heading forward as soon as possible, which is his usual tactic on the outstanding stayer.
Either way, in a field certain to be strung out he faces a huge, almost impossible, task if he is below peak fitness, as Anderson believes.
There are numerous other winning chances, though, with the in-form 4-year-olds looking the ones to catch off their front line draws.
Tribute may start favourite on the tote after his stunning last-start win in the Franklin Cup but regardless he will be the emotional favourite after the death of trainer Tim Butt's father Murray this week.
Tribute has always produced his best at Alexandra Park and if he races up to his Franklin Cup form tonight he will be very hard to hold out.
Presido is another who impressed in the Franklin Cup and is even better placed tonight from his handy front line draw.
A good standing-start horse, he should settle handy and will have an edge in fitness over many of his rivals.
Badlands Bute is as good as Tribute and Presido but looked a shade below his best when fourth behind them last time out. If he is back to his best tonight he too can win at good each-way odds.
That's Life Lavra, who won well fresh-up last week, Lord Vader and the newcomer to the Barry Purdon team, Imagine That, are other winning chances in an open race.
And the enigma of the event is Likmesiah, who started the season looking a serious cups chance but whose form since has rarely matched his reputation.
He is not well placed off the 25m handicap tonight but has always raced well at Alexandra Park so gets his chance to turn his season around at big odds.
HAPPY HOMECOMING?
* Mi Muchacho returns to his favourite track in the Manukau Cup at Alexandra Park tonight.
* Trainer Richard Anderson says the grey is healthy but will be below peak fitness.
* That will make it hard for him to beat a trio of class 4-year-olds off the front line.
* Tonight's meeting also hosts the $100,000 Sires' Stakes Fillies Final.
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