Racing: At the odds English raider Cima de Triomphe looks value

As they say in Australia, don't back very short-priced favourites and don't run up stairs.

You don't have to do either of those to have a bet in today's A$2.5 million Caulfield Cup.

This column has never been keen on the Caulfield Cup as a betting medium - the time-honoured race, on a tight circuit, is generally too luck oriented.

The Melbourne Cup is almost always a better betting vehicle.

As Damien Oliver yesterday described the Caulfield Cup: "It's a 2400m sprint on a tight track."

Get into the wrong spot at the wrong time and it's a case of come back next time.

But the odds this time allow a bit of value and a considerable level of interest.

For example, the New Zealand TAB has English raider Cima de Triomphe at $9, seemingly a very liberal quote considering the horse's admirable Northern Hemisphere form.

That's big, given New Zealand mare Daffodil is at $7, a price, to be fair, that is driven by the weight of local money more than it is an indication of her real chance.

The other Northern Hemisphere horse, Kirklees, is at $7.50 and although he is a real winning chance, at the odds, Cima de Triomphe looks the better value.

Damien Oliver rides him and he knows Caulfield better than anyone.

On a local note, overnight weather has become a catch-phrase.

Last night the Rotorua track for today's big meeting had firmed into a dead 5, considerably better than anticipated, but what the weather patterns did overnight was going to determine conditions. The Rotorua forecast for today changed three times yesterday.

Punters have a good chance on a decent track.

In the opener, Va Benissimo (No1, R1) has the credentials to be prominent fresh from a spell, despite a widish draw. He was beaten just a neck from the outside gate of 17 on debut at Te Aroha in April and being by Zabeel should be in for a good 4-year-old season.

There is not a race on the programme that will be decided more on the footing than Race 2. The class is at the top among Donthassleme (No1), Prince Of Wales (No2) and Veldt (No3). Donthassleme and Veldt are by Volksraad, the stock of whom like firm footing and neither is a good thing to start if the track worsens. Prince Of Wales has the advantage of having won on a slow track at Avondale as a juvenile. These are three high-quality young horses. If the track is very good Donthassleme can win, but it's no gimmee.

Shigeru (No8, R3) is a horse on the way through. He won on a slow track at Te Aroha last start, but is expected by the stable to be even better when tracks firm. He should get away with the conditions he strikes today. Imaplayboy (No1), Kilifi (No4) and visitor Katipo (No7) look the dangers.

Wida's Dream (No5, R5) did well to run on and finish 2.5 lengths from So Royal at Hastings after a crawling 2.9 2000m time, making it very difficult to make ground from the back. She has an inside draw this time and should get the run of the race. Titch (No1) is solid.

If the track comes up okay, Scarlet Vanhara (No2, R6) is in with a real chance to compete fresh from a spell. She displayed true potential as a 3-year-old last season and should be in for a big season. Atom Cat (No5) would come into favour with rain.

Rain would also help the chances of in-form Elblitzem in race 7, the $50,000 Platinum Homes Rotorua Plate.

He's fit, he's solid and he's showing he's now consistent. He's on a week back-up, but the fitness he's shown lately could be an advantage rather than a disadvantage on that score. Boundless (No4) is a chance if she lines up, despite her failure to run a place in four starts this preparation mainly, to be fair, over distances shorter than her best.

Justa Kinda Magic (No4, R8) is a bit of stuff. Apparently the connections have had a bit of an issue with him, but he'll be fit enough to compete here. He's had a barrier trial to fit him, so expect him to be ready. La Etoile (No5), particularly if there is not a great deal of rain, is right in the race and the upsetter is Sands Of Time (No6), a talented type who has had his issues.

Bulginbaah (No1, R9) could go around without a jockey he's been around that many times. Given he's coming off a close third under 59.5kg in handicap class, he looks well placed with 58.5kg in weight-for-age class with all horses essentially carrying their equal fair weight.

Tough race this, so be careful. Look to Richard Beymer (No2) to be more competitive than he was at Ellerslie last start where he shocked everyone by finishing last.

Best three in Caulfield Cup:

No 4 Cima de Triomphe
No 9 Predatory Pricer
No 18 Allez Wonder.