Only one number matters for punters considering Aslan as their Pick6 anchor at Alexandra Park tonight - 2200.
Because that distance for the feature pace makes the 5-year-old almost a certainty and gives punters the chance to claim back the money they burned on him last week.
Aslan was a costly second in the corresponding race last Friday when he was clearly outgunned up the passing lane by Red Zone.
But that was 2700m, which has always been right at the end of Aslan's range, as he showed when failing in the Derbys as a 3-year-old.
Drop him back 500m, though, and Aslan is a different horse, as his record proves.
Nine of his 10 wins have been over 2200m and in 18 starts over that distance he also has eight placings, meaning he has only once run out of the money over 2200m.
Included among those wins was a rare sub 2:40 clocking for 2200m, while over sprint trips he also has the scalps of Stunin Cullen, Tintin In America and Highview Tommy to his name.
That, coupled with a small field tonight, suggests he should win and if punters can get $1.75 or $1.80 they will be shopping well.
Trainer Doug Gale has two intriguing rivals for Aslan in Five Star Anvil and Protocol.
The latter was driven cold last Friday and never had a winning chance but his connections may be keen to use his gate speed tonight and that could make him a danger.
Five Star Anvil, a former Sales Series Pace winner, was second in the Woodlands Northern Derby last season.
He looked forward at the Pukekohe workouts last week but from the outside of the front line in the small field the tempo of the race is likely to be against him. Aslan may not be the only $75,000 Pick6 anchor for many tonight, with Sovereignty sure to carry most tickets in race seven.
He faces a 50m handicap in the junior drivers' race which he was transferred to after the race he was nominated for didn't get off the ground.
He returned to racing with a brave third in a fast-run 2700m last Friday and drops in class here, suggesting he is well off at the handicaps.
He also has the services of talented young driver Josh Dickie, who ironically is now the regular driver for Sovereignty's long-time arch-rival Real Deal Yankee.
With an even spread in the handicaps and last week's run having brought him on in fitness, Sovereignty should get the cart into the race to win and secure a trip south for Cup week.
And there could even be a third Pick6 anchor in Suidelike Meisie in race five.
She was outstanding winning fresh-up and has the gate speed to dominate tonight in a race where she has a definite class edge on her rivals.
* Only 18 horses remain in the running for a New Zealand Cup start after the latest round of withdrawals.
Northern pacer Percy The Punter was the most significant of those expected to start, with Australian stars Mr Feelgood and Karloo Mick also out, although they were always unlikely to make the trip.
Stunin Cullen remains the $1.80 fixed odds favourite for the November 9 classic, ahead of Smoken Up and Monkey King at $5. Smoken Up has his final lead-up at Menangle in New South Wales tonight.
WEEKEND WINNERS
* Best: Aslan (R6, No.5) Is exceptional over this distance and down in grade. Wins.
* Another anchor: Suidelike Meisie (R5, No.7) Bolted in fresh up and perfectly placed tonight. Short odds but too good.
* Fresh up: Tailspin (R2, No.5): Pushed champion stablemate Bettor Cover Lover at the workouts last week. Stable has great fresh-up record.
* Better draw: Courageous Falcon (R3, No.3): Big run from tough draw last start. Will be fitter tonight.
* Roughie: Katelin Brooke (R4, No.4): Galloped when going well at 400m last Friday. This field no stronger.
Racing: Aslan should win lion's share
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