KEY POINTS:
Anton may have been the beaten favourite at Tauranga last start, but when summing up Te Awamutu today it might pay to give him the benefit of the doubt on that.
Some of the form from that Tauranga meeting two weeks ago won't literally stack up.
And that's not so much a reflection on the track conditions as it is about where horses needed to be in running.
As the fields turned into the home straight the winners were tending to come down the same patch of turf, while horses either side were battling.
For punting today, let's say Anton (No1, R5) was perhaps just off where he needed to be. The only race you need to assess him on for this is his remarkable finish into a close second when resuming from a long break at Te Rapa in May. A repeat of that would win just about any flat race on this programme.
Grani (No2, R1) should be very difficult to beat in the hurdles. He flipped late in the Waikato Hurdles and was then caught late and beaten a long head by Mexican Wave at Ellerslie. That was over 3350m and as a speedy type he should be better suited to today's 2800m.
For a Waikato-based former top rugby player, Tim Carter has an appropriately named Chief's'N Town (No2, R2) going around early in the programme. He turned on a very impressive debut third at Tauranga two weeks ago where he was slow away and flashed home from an impossible position. He looks a promising young horse and if the swoopers are winning as they often do at Te Awamutu then he might prove difficult to hold out.
Danzahorse (No1) has been threatening to make up for that Te Rapa win he had taken off him.
Clithroe Kid (No2, R4) failed at Te Rapa last start, but that may not be significant compared to his overall previous form. That included a close third in an identical race to this on this track last month. He might be good each-way value. La Solar Eclipse (No9) suggests she may not be in maiden class long.
Floor Play (No1, R7) looks good rolling along in front and David Walsh rides them well in the pacemaking role. They scored an easy win at New Plymouth two starts back and this is only a slightly better field. Il Bacaro (No2) and Red Bunting (No3) are right on top of their form and are very fit.
The two main races on the programme are not easy. Dead Rabbits (No5, R8) is well placed in the weights to score his first win in a year, but he'll get it tough.
It's difficult to win four straight at this time of year and Kenadaad (No2) has to try and do it lumping 59kg in a handicap, which will be tougher than carrying the same weight at weight-for-age last start at Wanganui. Perhaps even more significant is the fact he has yet to run on a heavy track and it won't come much heavier than today's surface. Someone clever could argue the stat means he hasn't been beaten on a heavy track, but nevertheless it's a worry.
Ascot Isle (No3) is the definite upsetter. She is real class on her day and there is a decent reason for at least a couple of her three defeats since returning from a long break. Her 54kg might be the key. Baltaine (No1) also has a job with 59kg, but there have been times when he's shouldered weight well in heavy conditions. Difficult race, but weight might be the deciding factor.
The same could be said for the sprint. Spare The Detail (No8, R9) is going to carry the minimum 53kg and her record on rain-affected footing is superb. She finished a game second to perhaps her biggest threat here, Our Mavourneen (No6) at Tauranga last start and will be much better suited by today's conditions. With Noel Harris riding beautifully, she is going to be hard to pull back.
Our Mavourneen can handle ground wetter than she won in at Tauranga and is a real danger, and so is Floydeboy (No2) with a 4kg allowance dropping him to 54.5kg.
Good luck if you're trying to punt your way out of trouble in the last.
One that might help is former French racehorse Hurricane Mist (No5, R10). She has won a trial in soft ground at Paeroa since returning and has Lisa Cropp's help to find her the right bit of track late in the day.
Tuscaloosa (No4) and Thunder Road (No11) will appreciate the heavy track and could both be at good odds.
* The footing at Manawatu, posted as 5.6 on the NZTR website yesterday, is only for those that can handle it bottomless.
Mr Benny Hill (N3, R6) appears to be one of them. His recent placings behind talented types in Lord Monty and Thee Auld Hussie were on footing better than he prefers. He won't be able to use that as an excuse today.
The $40,000 special conditions event, Race 8 will attract widespread betting.
Two who have proven themselves in the worse of ground are Woodbury Belle (No1) and Charming Shinko (No10). The 4kg claim on Woodbury Belle will be huge in the conditions, but don't discount the other mare.
