There is one undeniable fact about top-level international horse racing - the best-conditioned horse beats the horse with the best ability.
When the two combine it's a match made in heaven.
Handsome French stayer Americain will attempt to prove he's such a horse when he steps out in the US$1.8 million ($2.4 million) Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Vase (2400m) at Sha Tin tomorrow.
A Melbourne Cup-Hong Kong Vase double in seven weeks is almost an impossible dream.
Not if you talk to travelling foreman Stephanie Nigge. Being the best-conditioned horse is all about coping well with the travel, which can knock a horse from the top of its form to the shadow of a carthorse.
Americain won the Melbourne Cup because, not since Media Puzzle, a Melbourne Cup European raider, years before, had a horse travelled and settled into Australia as well.
He lost a remarkable 1kg on the travel from France - from Melbourne to Hong Kong he shed 14kg, which would not originally have been a concern if he hadn't almost totally maintained his perfect bodyweight on the much longer previous flight south.
But the spring in the step of Stephanie Nigge at Sha Tin yesterday told you something.
"He's right back on target," said Nigge, whom French trainer Alain de Royer-Dupre places so much faith in and to whom he attributes much of the credit for the stunning Melbourne Cup victory.
"He's a horse that does very well," said Nigge as Americain walked on to the track for a gentle piece of work.
"He needed to in Australia because he had that 12-day back-up between winning the Geelong cup and the Melbourne Cup and that's something he's never had to do before."
Americain's best form has been on slightly rain-affected footing, which he got in the Melbourne Cup and won't get tomorrow.
French jockey Gerald Mosse is unconcerned and Nigge does not rate it even a factor.
Mosse believes a more important marker will be that Americain is better the right-handed way of Hong Kong than he was in Melbourne.
"I have always believed he is at his best right-handed," said Mosse.
"The closer we get to the race, the better he is."
Americain will start favourite. The sway of local interest is a big influence in making horses favourite in Hong Kong and Alain de Royer-Dupre and Mosse are favourites here, having combined to win this race last year with the Aga Khan's horse Daryakana.
The HKJC simulcasted the Melbourne Cup to its two local tracks here and locals supported Americain to the point he went out at shorter odds than in Australia.
One of the dangers is Japanese runner Jaguar Mail, who finished a close fourth in this race last year.
He is seen as being in better form now, evidenced by the fact that he finished a nice fourth in the Japan Cup two weeks ago.
The tip for the US$2.1 million Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Mile is the racing pattern on the day.
If horses are coming from off the pace to be in the finish, then Paco Boy can get home strongly to win.
The English metric miler has plenty of form around unquestionably the world's best at the distance, Goldikova - in fact, he has pushed her close several times.
He might just be too good for this field.
• It's almost too much for Paul Moroney to hope for Glass Harmonium to win the US$2.6 million Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Cup tomorrow.
Glass Harmonium is one of 10 horses Moroney bought on behalf of the stable of his Melbourne-based brother Mike at the recent Autumn Horses In Training sales in England.
The 4-year-old stallion continues to be prepared by his English trainer Sir Michael Stout and will be taken over by the Moroneys immediately after the race.
Paul Moroney went to England with six firm orders to buy readymade horses and bought 10.
"It's a new and cost-effective way of sourcing nice horses," said Moroney at the Sha Tin trackwork session yesterday morning.
He was tipped into the wisdom of the move when he purchased Fairfield Flame for the stable more than a year ago.
"She was around $100,000 landed in New Zealand and now, as a stakes-placed mare, is probably worth four times that."
It's an exercise in backing yourself to improve a horse.
"You might find a horse that hasn't fitted into a particular stable and might work better in another environment, one that might need gelding."
Sydney-based former New Zealand trainer Chris Waller has done well in recent years buying from the same sale.
"This year Chris and us were the second- and fifth-biggest buyers, so we're a big part of the sale."
Glass Harmonium doesn't have the form recommendations for this race of some of his opposition.
One of the favourites will be French-trained Vision D'Etat, winner of this race last year and who is looking to end his high-class career in a blaze of headlines. Other real chances are Cirrus des Aigles, Planteur and Stacelita, a further three of the very strong French raiding party, and England's Snow Fairy, winner of the English and Irish Oaks.
•Prominent New Zealand horse owners Gerard Peterson and Owen Glenn have sold their dual group one winner Monaco Consul to Patinack Farm, which will stand him as a stallion in New South Wales. Monaco Consul won more than $1.45 million in stakes. No price was disclosed.
Mike Dillon selects
Cup: Vision D'Etat, Planteur, Snow Fairy
Vase: Americain, Jaguar Mail, Joshua Tree
Mile: Paco Boy, Sahpresa, Able One
Sprint: Rocket Man, J J The Jet Plane, Sacred Kingdom
- Mke Dillon flew to Hong Kong courtesy of Cathay Pacific
Racing: Americain goes for big double
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