Racing: Alta Serena tantrum just adds to drama

The strangest New Zealand Cup build-up in decades has taken another twist, with favourite Alta Serena trying to kill her driver Brent Mangos, forcing her final workout to be postponed.

And her co-trainer John Green couldn't be happier about it.

After setbacks to fellow favourites Mi Muchacho and Just An Excuse in the past six days, Alta Serena is the horse many punters will lean towards today, especially as her campaign appears to have been perfect.

Until Sunday that is. That was when the Easter Cup winner tried to kick Mangos out of the sulky, forcing him to take her off the training track, change sulkies and reschedule her final workout.

Back on the track soon after she completed that hitout in style.

"I think that is a good sign because it tells me she is 100 per cent ready, maybe even 110 per cent," said Green.

"She can be like that any time but she is a lot more grumpy when she is really physically well and we think she is spot on for this one, fingers crossed."

If Alta Serena's early morning tantrum is a sign she is feeling healthy she becomes the horse to beat today because most other key indicators have fallen in her favour.

There are the obvious disruptions to her fellow northerners, the second line draw of another key rival, Bob's Blue Boy, and her ace draw, which could give Mangos control of the race.

Alta Serena usually steps very quickly and if she leads Mangos can choose to stay there or hand up to a horse likely to stay in front - Harnetts Creek, Mi Muchacho or Bobs Blue Boy - and then wait for the passing lane.

In that scenario the mare, having covered no extra ground at the end of a hard 3200m, would be the one to beat.

"That would be ideal but I don't think things have to happen like that for us to win," said Green. "Even if she got back in midfield she can still win because she has a better finish than most of them and she seems to find another gear at Addington."

Alta Serena will also be one of the fittest pacers in today's $400,000 thriller, with two searching races in her last two starts at Cambridge. That should ensure she can follow whatever speed eventuates today without it dulling her sprint.

Quite simply, she has more ticks in the key boxes needed to win a New Zealand Cup than any of her rivals.

But while she looks a fine each way bet the race is the most open it has been in a decade.

Just An Excuse has nothing left to prove at Addington but there must be doubts about him after Thursday's bleeding attack, no matter how slight it may have been.

Even before then his efforts - apart from a storming second in the Spring Cup - have been only adequate for a horse of his ability and he will need to be right up to last season's form to win.

He can do it but is likely to be little value on the tote because so many punters who have seen him win the last two cups will be back at Addington today.

Mi Muchacho would be a dominant favourite if it wasn't for last Wednesday's dreadful cup trial, in which it looked like he was wearing rollerskates.

Addington can trick horses having their first outing there because it is hard underneath with a loose top. The track will be better treated today and the addition of aluminium shoes with a more prominent front edge should provide better grip.

If he races up to his best form he will be very hard to beat as he is a natural 3200m athlete.

Bobs Blue Boy could be the best each way value in the race as he has had a trouble-free preparation and would love a hard 3200m.

Initially his second line draw looked a concern but he usually begins quickly following out other horses and it would not surprise to see him in front with a lap to go. Forget his last-start fifth at Kaikoura, he is ready for today.

Harnetts Creek is another winning chance if he can lead, as is Howard Bromac if he has a few things go his way. Likmesiah and Myron are newcomers to open class with chances.

Which leads to the x-factor horse of the race, Mainland Banner.

She has beaten nothing of this class in her short career to date but has looked an exceptional talent. If the pace is on and she does no work she could have more finishing kick in the last 200m than most of her older rivals.

The question is what effect the first 3000m at breakneck speed will have on her still maturing body?

Like every other question about today's cup, the answer lies at the end of the long Addington home straight.